Ongoing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict, including US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February 2026 and Iranian missile responses, have repeatedly prompted temporary restrictions on Israeli civilian aviation, with full or broad closures ordered in late February and partial measures during the June 2026 escalation. A short-lived April ceasefire allowed gradual reopening of Ben Gurion Airport for Israeli carriers, though foreign airlines largely stayed away amid security assessments. As of early September 2026, the airspace remains open under heightened EASA warnings valid through month-end, with trader odds reflecting risks of renewed barrages, Hezbollah involvement, or preemptive Israeli steps. Key variables include diplomatic efforts to extend truces, Iranian retaliation thresholds, and scheduled military or negotiation developments that could trigger broad suspensions qualifying for market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$28,762,102 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
67%
$28,762,102 KL.
September 30
$1,168,943 KL.
67%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict, including US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February 2026 and Iranian missile responses, have repeatedly prompted temporary restrictions on Israeli civilian aviation, with full or broad closures ordered in late February and partial measures during the June 2026 escalation. A short-lived April ceasefire allowed gradual reopening of Ben Gurion Airport for Israeli carriers, though foreign airlines largely stayed away amid security assessments. As of early September 2026, the airspace remains open under heightened EASA warnings valid through month-end, with trader odds reflecting risks of renewed barrages, Hezbollah involvement, or preemptive Israeli steps. Key variables include diplomatic efforts to extend truces, Iranian retaliation thresholds, and scheduled military or negotiation developments that could trigger broad suspensions qualifying for market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Khối lượng
$28,762,102Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict, including US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February 2026 and Iranian missile responses, have repeatedly prompted temporary restrictions on Israeli civilian aviation, with full or broad closures ordered in late February and partial measures during the June 2026 escalation. A short-lived April ceasefire allowed gradual reopening of Ben Gurion Airport for Israeli carriers, though foreign airlines largely stayed away amid security assessments. As of early September 2026, the airspace remains open under heightened EASA warnings valid through month-end, with trader odds reflecting risks of renewed barrages, Hezbollah involvement, or preemptive Israeli steps. Key variables include diplomatic efforts to extend truces, Iranian retaliation thresholds, and scheduled military or negotiation developments that could trigger broad suspensions qualifying for market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$28,762,102Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict, including US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February 2026 and Iranian missile responses, have repeatedly prompted temporary restrictions on Israeli civilian aviation, with full or broad closures ordered in late February and partial measures during the June 2026 escalation. A short-lived April ceasefire allowed gradual reopening of Ben Gurion Airport for Israeli carriers, though foreign airlines largely stayed away amid security assessments. As of early September 2026, the airspace remains open under heightened EASA warnings valid through month-end, with trader odds reflecting risks of renewed barrages, Hezbollah involvement, or preemptive Israeli steps. Key variables include diplomatic efforts to extend truces, Iranian retaliation thresholds, and scheduled military or negotiation developments that could trigger broad suspensions qualifying for market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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