Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and renewed blockade threats targeting Saudi-linked tonnage have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 30–35 ships per day in late August, well below the 60–80 pre-crisis baseline, with AIS-visible weekly counts around 223. Major carriers have selectively resumed Suez routings, supporting modest volume gains, yet war-risk premiums remain elevated and many operators continue Cape diversions amid ongoing regional hostilities. Tanker-specific data shows even lower averages near eight daily transits. Trader sentiment clusters around the 25–34 range as markets weigh potential de-escalation against further disruptions before end-September resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
30-34 26.5%
25-29 26%
<25 19.4%
35-39 18%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
<25
19%
25-29
26%
30-34
27%
35-39
18%
40+
12%
30-34 26.5%
25-29 26%
<25 19.4%
35-39 18%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
<25
$338 KL.
19%
25-29
$1,081 KL.
26%
30-34
$461 KL.
27%
35-39
$324 KL.
18%
40+
$164 KL.
12%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and renewed blockade threats targeting Saudi-linked tonnage have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 30–35 ships per day in late August, well below the 60–80 pre-crisis baseline, with AIS-visible weekly counts around 223. Major carriers have selectively resumed Suez routings, supporting modest volume gains, yet war-risk premiums remain elevated and many operators continue Cape diversions amid ongoing regional hostilities. Tanker-specific data shows even lower averages near eight daily transits. Trader sentiment clusters around the 25–34 range as markets weigh potential de-escalation against further disruptions before end-September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Thị trường mở: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,368Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
IMF PortWatchNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and renewed blockade threats targeting Saudi-linked tonnage have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 30–35 ships per day in late August, well below the 60–80 pre-crisis baseline, with AIS-visible weekly counts around 223. Major carriers have selectively resumed Suez routings, supporting modest volume gains, yet war-risk premiums remain elevated and many operators continue Cape diversions amid ongoing regional hostilities. Tanker-specific data shows even lower averages near eight daily transits. Trader sentiment clusters around the 25–34 range as markets weigh potential de-escalation against further disruptions before end-September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Khối lượng
$2,368Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
IMF PortWatchNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and renewed blockade threats targeting Saudi-linked tonnage have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 30–35 ships per day in late August, well below the 60–80 pre-crisis baseline, with AIS-visible weekly counts around 223. Major carriers have selectively resumed Suez routings, supporting modest volume gains, yet war-risk premiums remain elevated and many operators continue Cape diversions amid ongoing regional hostilities. Tanker-specific data shows even lower averages near eight daily transits. Trader sentiment clusters around the 25–34 range as markets weigh potential de-escalation against further disruptions before end-September resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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