**Ongoing Houthi threats and selective attacks on Saudi-linked tonnage continue to suppress normal commercial flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while raw AIS counts hold in a constrained range.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show weekly crossings around 223–269 in mid-to-late August 2026, with the week of 10–16 August at 223 AIS-trackable transits and the week ending around 24 August near 269. These figures include elevated shares of ballast, sanctioned, and dark (AIS-off) movements, while laden commercial transits—especially tankers—remain well below pre-2023 crisis baselines. War-risk premiums have risen sharply again following the August 24 strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan and earlier incidents, prompting carriers to treat Suez routings as conditional and accelerating some Asia-Europe services back via the Cape. This environment supports trader consensus around 170–209 transits for the week of August 31, as persistent targeting risks and higher insurance costs limit full normalization even as select operators test limited returns. Volumes could edge higher only if attacks subside or more shadow-fleet activity fills gaps, but downside pressure from rerouting or further deterrence keeps the distribution centered in that band.