Iceland’s narrow rejection of renewed EU accession talks reflects entrenched voter priorities around national sovereignty and control of fisheries, which outweighed arguments for economic stability or Arctic security ties amid U.S. policy shifts. Rural constituencies delivered decisive margins against reopening negotiations, while urban areas in Reykjavík leaned toward yes, producing the overall 52.5–47.5 percent split reported by RÚV. The referendum, advanced from 2027 by the Frostadóttir government after prior talks stalled in 2013, underscored long-standing divisions over the Common Fisheries Policy and accession conditions. Trader consensus on a 3–6 percent no margin aligns with these geographic and sectoral patterns. Late-count adjustments in remaining districts or turnout anomalies could still shift the precise margin within the narrow range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo 3–6% 96%
Yes 9–12% 8.3%
No 6–9% 8%
No 15%+ 4.0%
$16,406 KL.
$16,406 KL.
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
1%
Yes 12–15%
1%
Yes 9–12%
8%
Yes 6–9%
1%
Yes 3–6%
1%
Yes <3%
4%
No <3%
4%
No 3–6%
96%
No 6–9%
8%
No 9–12%
4%
No 12–15%
4%
No 15%+
4%
No 3–6% 96%
Yes 9–12% 8.3%
No 6–9% 8%
No 15%+ 4.0%
$16,406 KL.
$16,406 KL.
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
$772 KL.
1%
Yes 12–15%
$323 KL.
1%
Yes 9–12%
$2,594 KL.
8%
Yes 6–9%
$315 KL.
1%
Yes 3–6%
$1,117 KL.
1%
Yes <3%
$347 KL.
4%
No <3%
$3,356 KL.
4%
No 3–6%
$1,197 KL.
96%
No 6–9%
$289 KL.
8%
No 9–12%
$335 KL.
4%
No 12–15%
$237 KL.
4%
No 15%+
$5,525 KL.
4%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland’s narrow rejection of renewed EU accession talks reflects entrenched voter priorities around national sovereignty and control of fisheries, which outweighed arguments for economic stability or Arctic security ties amid U.S. policy shifts. Rural constituencies delivered decisive margins against reopening negotiations, while urban areas in Reykjavík leaned toward yes, producing the overall 52.5–47.5 percent split reported by RÚV. The referendum, advanced from 2027 by the Frostadóttir government after prior talks stalled in 2013, underscored long-standing divisions over the Common Fisheries Policy and accession conditions. Trader consensus on a 3–6 percent no margin aligns with these geographic and sectoral patterns. Late-count adjustments in remaining districts or turnout anomalies could still shift the precise margin within the narrow range.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Thị trường mở: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Khối lượng
$16,406Ngày kết thúc
Aug 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland’s narrow rejection of renewed EU accession talks reflects entrenched voter priorities around national sovereignty and control of fisheries, which outweighed arguments for economic stability or Arctic security ties amid U.S. policy shifts. Rural constituencies delivered decisive margins against reopening negotiations, while urban areas in Reykjavík leaned toward yes, producing the overall 52.5–47.5 percent split reported by RÚV. The referendum, advanced from 2027 by the Frostadóttir government after prior talks stalled in 2013, underscored long-standing divisions over the Common Fisheries Policy and accession conditions. Trader consensus on a 3–6 percent no margin aligns with these geographic and sectoral patterns. Late-count adjustments in remaining districts or turnout anomalies could still shift the precise margin within the narrow range.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Khối lượng
$16,406Ngày kết thúc
Aug 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Iceland’s narrow rejection of renewed EU accession talks reflects entrenched voter priorities around national sovereignty and control of fisheries, which outweighed arguments for economic stability or Arctic security ties amid U.S. policy shifts. Rural constituencies delivered decisive margins against reopening negotiations, while urban areas in Reykjavík leaned toward yes, producing the overall 52.5–47.5 percent split reported by RÚV. The referendum, advanced from 2027 by the Frostadóttir government after prior talks stalled in 2013, underscored long-standing divisions over the Common Fisheries Policy and accession conditions. Trader consensus on a 3–6 percent no margin aligns with these geographic and sectoral patterns. Late-count adjustments in remaining districts or turnout anomalies could still shift the precise margin within the narrow range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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