The nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, just days away, centers on Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan as the dominant contenders in Alaska's U.S. Senate race. Recent polls show them nearly tied or with Peltola holding a slim edge among registered voters, while her campaign has significantly outraised Sullivan's in the latest reporting period. Multiple minor candidates on the ballot, including a same-named challenger cleared by court ruling, increase the chance of fragmented results or an outcome outside the listed Peltola-Sullivan margin bands. Traders' heavy weighting toward "Other" at 50% aligns with this uncertainty and the potential for a narrow victory or different frontrunner advancing under the state's voting rules.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPeltola 3–6% 31%
Peltola 6–9% 17%
Sullivan <3% 14%
Peltola <3% 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 18, 2026
Peltola 15%+
8%
Peltola 12–15%
10%
Peltola 9–12%
10%
Peltola 6–9%
17%
Peltola 3–6%
31%
Peltola <3%
13%
Sullivan <3%
14%
Sullivan 3–6%
5%
Sullivan 6–9%
8%
Sullivan 9–12%
6%
Sullivan 12%+
6%
Peltola 3–6% 31%
Peltola 6–9% 17%
Sullivan <3% 14%
Peltola <3% 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 18, 2026
Peltola 15%+
$100 KL.
8%
Peltola 12–15%
$60 KL.
10%
Peltola 9–12%
$60 KL.
10%
Peltola 6–9%
$274 KL.
17%
Peltola 3–6%
$852 KL.
31%
Peltola <3%
$60 KL.
13%
Sullivan <3%
$60 KL.
14%
Sullivan 3–6%
$60 KL.
5%
Sullivan 6–9%
$60 KL.
8%
Sullivan 9–12%
$60 KL.
6%
Sullivan 12%+
$60 KL.
6%
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, just days away, centers on Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan as the dominant contenders in Alaska's U.S. Senate race. Recent polls show them nearly tied or with Peltola holding a slim edge among registered voters, while her campaign has significantly outraised Sullivan's in the latest reporting period. Multiple minor candidates on the ballot, including a same-named challenger cleared by court ruling, increase the chance of fragmented results or an outcome outside the listed Peltola-Sullivan margin bands. Traders' heavy weighting toward "Other" at 50% aligns with this uncertainty and the potential for a narrow victory or different frontrunner advancing under the state's voting rules.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Thị trường mở: Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,707Ngày kết thúc
Aug 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, just days away, centers on Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan as the dominant contenders in Alaska's U.S. Senate race. Recent polls show them nearly tied or with Peltola holding a slim edge among registered voters, while her campaign has significantly outraised Sullivan's in the latest reporting period. Multiple minor candidates on the ballot, including a same-named challenger cleared by court ruling, increase the chance of fragmented results or an outcome outside the listed Peltola-Sullivan margin bands. Traders' heavy weighting toward "Other" at 50% aligns with this uncertainty and the potential for a narrow victory or different frontrunner advancing under the state's voting rules.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Khối lượng
$1,707Ngày kết thúc
Aug 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, just days away, centers on Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan as the dominant contenders in Alaska's U.S. Senate race. Recent polls show them nearly tied or with Peltola holding a slim edge among registered voters, while her campaign has significantly outraised Sullivan's in the latest reporting period. Multiple minor candidates on the ballot, including a same-named challenger cleared by court ruling, increase the chance of fragmented results or an outcome outside the listed Peltola-Sullivan margin bands. Traders' heavy weighting toward "Other" at 50% aligns with this uncertainty and the potential for a narrow victory or different frontrunner advancing under the state's voting rules.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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