SpaceX's Starship program has completed 13 total flight tests through July 2026, including the V3 debut on Flight 12 in May and a successful Flight 13 in late July that deployed Starlink V3 satellites. Trader consensus around 5-6 space-reaching launches for the full year reflects a measured ramp-up driven by ongoing FAA licensing for higher cadence, vehicle iteration between test flights, and the shift toward commercial operations in the second half of 2026. Recent comments from Elon Musk highlight ambitions for rapid increases, including tower catches and payload deployments, yet historical timelines show regulatory reviews and hardware readiness often constrain monthly rates. Upcoming catalysts include Flight 14 targeted for August and potential approvals for expanded operations from Starbase.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu lần phóng Starship lên vũ trụ vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu lần phóng Starship lên vũ trụ vào năm 2026?
5-6 55%
<5 33%
7-8 6.5%
11-12 3.1%
$493,114 KL.
$493,114 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
<5
33%
5-6
55%
7-8
7%
9-10
3%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 55%
<5 33%
7-8 6.5%
11-12 3.1%
$493,114 KL.
$493,114 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
<5
$99,154 KL.
33%
5-6
$113,820 KL.
55%
7-8
$158,488 KL.
7%
9-10
$61,502 KL.
3%
11-12
$8,397 KL.
3%
13-14
$9,172 KL.
<1%
15-16
$30,073 KL.
<1%
>16
$12,509 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program has completed 13 total flight tests through July 2026, including the V3 debut on Flight 12 in May and a successful Flight 13 in late July that deployed Starlink V3 satellites. Trader consensus around 5-6 space-reaching launches for the full year reflects a measured ramp-up driven by ongoing FAA licensing for higher cadence, vehicle iteration between test flights, and the shift toward commercial operations in the second half of 2026. Recent comments from Elon Musk highlight ambitions for rapid increases, including tower catches and payload deployments, yet historical timelines show regulatory reviews and hardware readiness often constrain monthly rates. Upcoming catalysts include Flight 14 targeted for August and potential approvals for expanded operations from Starbase.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$493,114Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program has completed 13 total flight tests through July 2026, including the V3 debut on Flight 12 in May and a successful Flight 13 in late July that deployed Starlink V3 satellites. Trader consensus around 5-6 space-reaching launches for the full year reflects a measured ramp-up driven by ongoing FAA licensing for higher cadence, vehicle iteration between test flights, and the shift toward commercial operations in the second half of 2026. Recent comments from Elon Musk highlight ambitions for rapid increases, including tower catches and payload deployments, yet historical timelines show regulatory reviews and hardware readiness often constrain monthly rates. Upcoming catalysts include Flight 14 targeted for August and potential approvals for expanded operations from Starbase.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$493,114Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's Starship program has completed 13 total flight tests through July 2026, including the V3 debut on Flight 12 in May and a successful Flight 13 in late July that deployed Starlink V3 satellites. Trader consensus around 5-6 space-reaching launches for the full year reflects a measured ramp-up driven by ongoing FAA licensing for higher cadence, vehicle iteration between test flights, and the shift toward commercial operations in the second half of 2026. Recent comments from Elon Musk highlight ambitions for rapid increases, including tower catches and payload deployments, yet historical timelines show regulatory reviews and hardware readiness often constrain monthly rates. Upcoming catalysts include Flight 14 targeted for August and potential approvals for expanded operations from Starbase.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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