The weak June employment report, showing just 57,000 nonfarm payroll gains against consensus expectations near 110,000–115,000, anchors trader positioning across all July bins at equal implied probabilities. Downward revisions to prior months, a drop in labor force participation to 61.5%, and an unemployment rate easing to 4.2% highlight cooling momentum amid cautious hiring, tariff-related uncertainty, and elevated inflation. Wage growth held solid at 3.5% year-over-year, while sectors like health care and professional services continued modest gains. This mixed data—combined with potential policy effects and upcoming July indicators such as ADP, JOLTS, and initial claims—creates balanced uncertainty, with outcomes hinging on whether the slowdown persists or rebounds before the August release.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many jobs added in July?
How many jobs added in July?
50k – 100k 34%
0 – 50k 23%
150k – 200k 18.5%
100k – 150k 11.6%
$12,451 KL.
$12,451 KL.
<0
1%
0 – 50k
23%
50k – 100k
44%
100k – 150k
12%
150k – 200k
14%
200k+
10%
50k – 100k 34%
0 – 50k 23%
150k – 200k 18.5%
100k – 150k 11.6%
$12,451 KL.
$12,451 KL.
<0
1%
0 – 50k
23%
50k – 100k
44%
100k – 150k
12%
150k – 200k
14%
200k+
10%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Thị trường mở: Jul 2, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The weak June employment report, showing just 57,000 nonfarm payroll gains against consensus expectations near 110,000–115,000, anchors trader positioning across all July bins at equal implied probabilities. Downward revisions to prior months, a drop in labor force participation to 61.5%, and an unemployment rate easing to 4.2% highlight cooling momentum amid cautious hiring, tariff-related uncertainty, and elevated inflation. Wage growth held solid at 3.5% year-over-year, while sectors like health care and professional services continued modest gains. This mixed data—combined with potential policy effects and upcoming July indicators such as ADP, JOLTS, and initial claims—creates balanced uncertainty, with outcomes hinging on whether the slowdown persists or rebounds before the August release.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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