Trader consensus on the Milan maximum temperature market reflects tight clustering of short-range weather model guidance around 23–24°C for September 18, with 23°C holding a narrow 35.5% implied probability edge. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS runs show modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow, tempered by scattered showers that limit boundary-layer warming. Recent observations indicate surface dew points near 16–18°C and modest instability, keeping the distribution centered in the low-to-mid 20s rather than supporting a push toward 25°C or higher. Final model updates overnight will refine whether subtle differences in cloud cover or timing of any precipitation tip the outcome between the two leading bins.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Milan on September 18?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 18?
23°C 36%
24°C 34%
25°C or higher 18%
22°C 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
14%
23°C
36%
24°C
34%
25°C or higher
18%
23°C 36%
24°C 34%
25°C or higher 18%
22°C 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
$45 KL.
<1%
16°C
$125 KL.
<1%
17°C
$125 KL.
<1%
18°C
$445 KL.
<1%
19°C
$174 KL.
1%
20°C
$129 KL.
2%
21°C
$199 KL.
5%
22°C
$381 KL.
14%
23°C
$361 KL.
36%
24°C
$441 KL.
34%
25°C or higher
$854 KL.
18%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Milan maximum temperature market reflects tight clustering of short-range weather model guidance around 23–24°C for September 18, with 23°C holding a narrow 35.5% implied probability edge. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS runs show modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow, tempered by scattered showers that limit boundary-layer warming. Recent observations indicate surface dew points near 16–18°C and modest instability, keeping the distribution centered in the low-to-mid 20s rather than supporting a push toward 25°C or higher. Final model updates overnight will refine whether subtle differences in cloud cover or timing of any precipitation tip the outcome between the two leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$3,278Ngày kết thúc
Sep 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Milan maximum temperature market reflects tight clustering of short-range weather model guidance around 23–24°C for September 18, with 23°C holding a narrow 35.5% implied probability edge. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS runs show modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow, tempered by scattered showers that limit boundary-layer warming. Recent observations indicate surface dew points near 16–18°C and modest instability, keeping the distribution centered in the low-to-mid 20s rather than supporting a push toward 25°C or higher. Final model updates overnight will refine whether subtle differences in cloud cover or timing of any precipitation tip the outcome between the two leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$3,278Ngày kết thúc
Sep 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Milan maximum temperature market reflects tight clustering of short-range weather model guidance around 23–24°C for September 18, with 23°C holding a narrow 35.5% implied probability edge. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS runs show modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow, tempered by scattered showers that limit boundary-layer warming. Recent observations indicate surface dew points near 16–18°C and modest instability, keeping the distribution centered in the low-to-mid 20s rather than supporting a push toward 25°C or higher. Final model updates overnight will refine whether subtle differences in cloud cover or timing of any precipitation tip the outcome between the two leading bins.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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