OpenAI’s latest GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4 Pro variants trail Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models, which lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% accuracy as of early September 2026, while OpenAI’s strongest reported scores sit between 54.7% and 58.7%. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, jointly developed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI, emphasizes graduate-level reasoning across mathematics, sciences, and humanities with minimal contamination risk. Recent gains have come from enhanced chain-of-thought scaffolding, tool use, and iterative GPT-5 series releases, yet Anthropic’s edge in adaptive reasoning and multidisciplinary integration has widened the gap. Traders price a high likelihood of OpenAI reaching at least 55% by year-end but assign lower odds to crossing 60%+, reflecting the competitive pressure and typical model-release timelines through December 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$76,531 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
90%
55%+
79%
60%+
36%
65%+
20%
70%+
11%
$76,531 KL.
50%+
$12,199 KL.
90%
55%+
$29,180 KL.
79%
60%+
$25,192 KL.
36%
65%+
$5,491 KL.
20%
70%+
$4,469 KL.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s latest GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4 Pro variants trail Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models, which lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% accuracy as of early September 2026, while OpenAI’s strongest reported scores sit between 54.7% and 58.7%. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, jointly developed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI, emphasizes graduate-level reasoning across mathematics, sciences, and humanities with minimal contamination risk. Recent gains have come from enhanced chain-of-thought scaffolding, tool use, and iterative GPT-5 series releases, yet Anthropic’s edge in adaptive reasoning and multidisciplinary integration has widened the gap. Traders price a high likelihood of OpenAI reaching at least 55% by year-end but assign lower odds to crossing 60%+, reflecting the competitive pressure and typical model-release timelines through December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Khối lượng
$76,531Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s latest GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4 Pro variants trail Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models, which lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% accuracy as of early September 2026, while OpenAI’s strongest reported scores sit between 54.7% and 58.7%. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, jointly developed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI, emphasizes graduate-level reasoning across mathematics, sciences, and humanities with minimal contamination risk. Recent gains have come from enhanced chain-of-thought scaffolding, tool use, and iterative GPT-5 series releases, yet Anthropic’s edge in adaptive reasoning and multidisciplinary integration has widened the gap. Traders price a high likelihood of OpenAI reaching at least 55% by year-end but assign lower odds to crossing 60%+, reflecting the competitive pressure and typical model-release timelines through December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$76,531Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s latest GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4 Pro variants trail Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 models, which lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% accuracy as of early September 2026, while OpenAI’s strongest reported scores sit between 54.7% and 58.7%. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, jointly developed by the Center for AI Safety and Scale AI, emphasizes graduate-level reasoning across mathematics, sciences, and humanities with minimal contamination risk. Recent gains have come from enhanced chain-of-thought scaffolding, tool use, and iterative GPT-5 series releases, yet Anthropic’s edge in adaptive reasoning and multidisciplinary integration has widened the gap. Traders price a high likelihood of OpenAI reaching at least 55% by year-end but assign lower odds to crossing 60%+, reflecting the competitive pressure and typical model-release timelines through December 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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