Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, and the Ohio special election lead trader consensus for the closest 2026 Senate race because multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate them toss-ups or near-toss-ups with polling averages inside three points. Open seats after retirements in Michigan and Iowa, plus competitive matchups featuring high-profile nominees in Texas and Alaska, have produced tight polling and elevated uncertainty about final margins. A Democratic-leaning generic ballot environment and battleground-state dynamics further compress expected spreads across these races. Fresh polling releases, candidate debates, or shifts in national conditions before November could widen gaps or elevate other states such as New Hampshire or North Carolina.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtClosest Senate Race?
Closest Senate Race?
Texas 15%
Iowa 12.3%
Michigan 10.7%
Maine 10%
$37,146 KL.
$37,146 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
15%
Iowa
12%
Michigan
11%
Maine
10%
Alaska
9%
Ohio (Special)
9%
Nebraska
7%
Virginia
4%
Florida (Special)
3%
New Hampshire
3%
Montana
3%
Georgia
2%
North Carolina
6%
New Mexico
2%
Minnesota
1%
Colorado
1%
Texas 15%
Iowa 12.3%
Michigan 10.7%
Maine 10%
$37,146 KL.
$37,146 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,816 KL.
15%
Iowa
$2,959 KL.
12%
Michigan
$2,833 KL.
11%
Maine
$1,305 KL.
10%
Alaska
$7,337 KL.
9%
Ohio (Special)
$8,954 KL.
9%
Nebraska
$293 KL.
7%
Virginia
$5,073 KL.
4%
Florida (Special)
$253 KL.
3%
New Hampshire
$659 KL.
3%
Montana
$1,284 KL.
3%
Georgia
$824 KL.
2%
North Carolina
$851 KL.
6%
New Mexico
$160 KL.
2%
Minnesota
$1,489 KL.
1%
Colorado
$1,057 KL.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, and the Ohio special election lead trader consensus for the closest 2026 Senate race because multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate them toss-ups or near-toss-ups with polling averages inside three points. Open seats after retirements in Michigan and Iowa, plus competitive matchups featuring high-profile nominees in Texas and Alaska, have produced tight polling and elevated uncertainty about final margins. A Democratic-leaning generic ballot environment and battleground-state dynamics further compress expected spreads across these races. Fresh polling releases, candidate debates, or shifts in national conditions before November could widen gaps or elevate other states such as New Hampshire or North Carolina.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Khối lượng
$37,146Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, and the Ohio special election lead trader consensus for the closest 2026 Senate race because multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate them toss-ups or near-toss-ups with polling averages inside three points. Open seats after retirements in Michigan and Iowa, plus competitive matchups featuring high-profile nominees in Texas and Alaska, have produced tight polling and elevated uncertainty about final margins. A Democratic-leaning generic ballot environment and battleground-state dynamics further compress expected spreads across these races. Fresh polling releases, candidate debates, or shifts in national conditions before November could widen gaps or elevate other states such as New Hampshire or North Carolina.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$37,146Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, and the Ohio special election lead trader consensus for the closest 2026 Senate race because multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate them toss-ups or near-toss-ups with polling averages inside three points. Open seats after retirements in Michigan and Iowa, plus competitive matchups featuring high-profile nominees in Texas and Alaska, have produced tight polling and elevated uncertainty about final margins. A Democratic-leaning generic ballot environment and battleground-state dynamics further compress expected spreads across these races. Fresh polling releases, candidate debates, or shifts in national conditions before November could widen gaps or elevate other states such as New Hampshire or North Carolina.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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