In the approach to the 2026 midterm elections, Senate race margins are influenced primarily by the national political climate, candidate quality in battleground states, and state-level factors such as voter turnout trends and economic conditions. Early polling averages and historical voting patterns in competitive contests indicate several seats may hinge on narrow differences, with primaries determining nominees and shaping paths to victory. Fundraising totals, endorsements, and any shifts in the Senate map could alter dynamics ahead of Election Day, while the overall partisan balance and turnout in key districts remain central to final margins. Trader consensus on close races accounts for these variables without guaranteeing outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich Senate races will be within 5%?
Which Senate races will be within 5%?
$21,139 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio (Special)
76%
Michigan
75%
Iowa
74%
Alaska
71%
Texas
70%
Maine
66%
New Hampshire
47%
Nebraska
45%
Georgia
35%
Florida (Special)
29%
North Carolina
28%
Minnesota
26%
New Mexico
11%
Montana
8%
Virginia
5%
Colorado
4%
$21,139 KL.
Ohio (Special)
$590 KL.
76%
Michigan
$519 KL.
75%
Iowa
$766 KL.
74%
Alaska
$354 KL.
71%
Texas
$1,937 KL.
70%
Maine
$228 KL.
66%
New Hampshire
$1,001 KL.
47%
Nebraska
$1,867 KL.
45%
Georgia
$163 KL.
35%
Florida (Special)
$977 KL.
29%
North Carolina
$1,712 KL.
28%
Minnesota
$5,497 KL.
26%
New Mexico
$1,813 KL.
11%
Montana
$1,257 KL.
8%
Virginia
$897 KL.
5%
Colorado
$1,562 KL.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the approach to the 2026 midterm elections, Senate race margins are influenced primarily by the national political climate, candidate quality in battleground states, and state-level factors such as voter turnout trends and economic conditions. Early polling averages and historical voting patterns in competitive contests indicate several seats may hinge on narrow differences, with primaries determining nominees and shaping paths to victory. Fundraising totals, endorsements, and any shifts in the Senate map could alter dynamics ahead of Election Day, while the overall partisan balance and turnout in key districts remain central to final margins. Trader consensus on close races accounts for these variables without guaranteeing outcomes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$21,139Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the approach to the 2026 midterm elections, Senate race margins are influenced primarily by the national political climate, candidate quality in battleground states, and state-level factors such as voter turnout trends and economic conditions. Early polling averages and historical voting patterns in competitive contests indicate several seats may hinge on narrow differences, with primaries determining nominees and shaping paths to victory. Fundraising totals, endorsements, and any shifts in the Senate map could alter dynamics ahead of Election Day, while the overall partisan balance and turnout in key districts remain central to final margins. Trader consensus on close races accounts for these variables without guaranteeing outcomes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$21,139Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the approach to the 2026 midterm elections, Senate race margins are influenced primarily by the national political climate, candidate quality in battleground states, and state-level factors such as voter turnout trends and economic conditions. Early polling averages and historical voting patterns in competitive contests indicate several seats may hinge on narrow differences, with primaries determining nominees and shaping paths to victory. Fundraising totals, endorsements, and any shifts in the Senate map could alter dynamics ahead of Election Day, while the overall partisan balance and turnout in key districts remain central to final margins. Trader consensus on close races accounts for these variables without guaranteeing outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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