Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st congressional district toward a Democratic lean ahead of the November 2026 general election, with a partisan voting index reflecting that tilt and prompting most forecasters to rate the seat as competitive or Democratic-leaning. Republican James Gallagher, who secured the seat via special election earlier in the cycle, faces Democrat Mike McGuire in the general after both advanced from the June primary under the state's top-two system. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory based on the updated district lines, voter registration patterns, and historical performance in similar terrain, though Gallagher's incumbency, name recognition from state legislative service, and potential for strong turnout in remaining Republican-leaning pockets could narrow margins if turnout or national conditions shift.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$32,290 KL.
$32,290 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
4%
$32,290 KL.
$32,290 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$23,568 KL.
94%
Republican Party
$8,722 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st congressional district toward a Democratic lean ahead of the November 2026 general election, with a partisan voting index reflecting that tilt and prompting most forecasters to rate the seat as competitive or Democratic-leaning. Republican James Gallagher, who secured the seat via special election earlier in the cycle, faces Democrat Mike McGuire in the general after both advanced from the June primary under the state's top-two system. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory based on the updated district lines, voter registration patterns, and historical performance in similar terrain, though Gallagher's incumbency, name recognition from state legislative service, and potential for strong turnout in remaining Republican-leaning pockets could narrow margins if turnout or national conditions shift.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$32,290Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st congressional district toward a Democratic lean ahead of the November 2026 general election, with a partisan voting index reflecting that tilt and prompting most forecasters to rate the seat as competitive or Democratic-leaning. Republican James Gallagher, who secured the seat via special election earlier in the cycle, faces Democrat Mike McGuire in the general after both advanced from the June primary under the state's top-two system. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory based on the updated district lines, voter registration patterns, and historical performance in similar terrain, though Gallagher's incumbency, name recognition from state legislative service, and potential for strong turnout in remaining Republican-leaning pockets could narrow margins if turnout or national conditions shift.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$32,290Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st congressional district toward a Democratic lean ahead of the November 2026 general election, with a partisan voting index reflecting that tilt and prompting most forecasters to rate the seat as competitive or Democratic-leaning. Republican James Gallagher, who secured the seat via special election earlier in the cycle, faces Democrat Mike McGuire in the general after both advanced from the June primary under the state's top-two system. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory based on the updated district lines, voter registration patterns, and historical performance in similar terrain, though Gallagher's incumbency, name recognition from state legislative service, and potential for strong turnout in remaining Republican-leaning pockets could narrow margins if turnout or national conditions shift.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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