Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round consistently places Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and son of the ineligible former president, in the low-to-mid 30s, with several September surveys showing gains to 34–37% as he consolidates right-wing support and improves among independents, particularly in the Southeast. This positioning, combined with narrowing runoff gaps against Lula and base mobilization despite earlier scandals, underpins trader expectations that his share will reach or exceed 39%. Fragmented conservative alternatives and undecided voters remain variables that could shift final first-round totals before voting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật39%+ 83%
36-39% 11%
33-36% 8.0%
30-33% 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 4, 2026
<30%
5%
30-33%
7%
33-36%
16%
36-39%
11%
39%+
63%
39%+ 83%
36-39% 11%
33-36% 8.0%
30-33% 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 4, 2026
<30%
$166 KL.
5%
30-33%
$317 KL.
7%
33-36%
$272 KL.
16%
36-39%
$344 KL.
11%
39%+
$561 KL.
63%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round consistently places Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and son of the ineligible former president, in the low-to-mid 30s, with several September surveys showing gains to 34–37% as he consolidates right-wing support and improves among independents, particularly in the Southeast. This positioning, combined with narrowing runoff gaps against Lula and base mobilization despite earlier scandals, underpins trader expectations that his share will reach or exceed 39%. Fragmented conservative alternatives and undecided voters remain variables that could shift final first-round totals before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,123Ngày kết thúc
Oct 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round consistently places Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and son of the ineligible former president, in the low-to-mid 30s, with several September surveys showing gains to 34–37% as he consolidates right-wing support and improves among independents, particularly in the Southeast. This positioning, combined with narrowing runoff gaps against Lula and base mobilization despite earlier scandals, underpins trader expectations that his share will reach or exceed 39%. Fragmented conservative alternatives and undecided voters remain variables that could shift final first-round totals before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Khối lượng
$1,123Ngày kết thúc
Oct 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round consistently places Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and son of the ineligible former president, in the low-to-mid 30s, with several September surveys showing gains to 34–37% as he consolidates right-wing support and improves among independents, particularly in the Southeast. This positioning, combined with narrowing runoff gaps against Lula and base mobilization despite earlier scandals, underpins trader expectations that his share will reach or exceed 39%. Fragmented conservative alternatives and undecided voters remain variables that could shift final first-round totals before voting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
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