Traders assign an 84.5% probability to no U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 because recent developments point to sustained economic sanctions, naval pressure around the Strait of Hormuz, and indirect diplomacy rather than ground operations. The June MoU expired in mid-August without extension, shifting focus to U.S. secondary sanctions targeting Iranian oil trade and Iranian-Omani talks on revised maritime routes. President Trump has emphasized applying diplomatic, economic, and limited military tools while describing the situation as a prolonged chess game amid Iran’s currency collapse and inflation. Military analysts note that any large-scale ground operation would require far more forces than currently deployed in the region and carries high risks, consistent with the absence of reported U.S. strikes since late July and continued mediation via Qatar and Pakistan.