The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 US-Israel military campaign, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and rapid succession by his son Mojtaba, underpins the 92.5% implied probability against its fall before 2027. Despite widespread January protests met with lethal force, leadership losses, proxy setbacks, and a collapsing rial, security forces showed minimal defections and maintained control. Recent US sanctions targeting financial lifelines, announced amid record currency lows and ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions, have intensified economic strain without triggering mass defections or coordinated opposition capable of toppling the system. Traders price in the regime's demonstrated resilience, institutional redundancies, and shift toward greater IRGC influence as barriers to near-term collapse, consistent with its track record of enduring comparable pressures.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
8% шанс
$25,242,706 Обс.
$25,242,706 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
Так
8% шанс
$25,242,706 Обс.
$25,242,706 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 US-Israel military campaign, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and rapid succession by his son Mojtaba, underpins the 92.5% implied probability against its fall before 2027. Despite widespread January protests met with lethal force, leadership losses, proxy setbacks, and a collapsing rial, security forces showed minimal defections and maintained control. Recent US sanctions targeting financial lifelines, announced amid record currency lows and ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions, have intensified economic strain without triggering mass defections or coordinated opposition capable of toppling the system. Traders price in the regime's demonstrated resilience, institutional redundancies, and shift toward greater IRGC influence as barriers to near-term collapse, consistent with its track record of enduring comparable pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Обсяг
$25,242,706Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 US-Israel military campaign, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and rapid succession by his son Mojtaba, underpins the 92.5% implied probability against its fall before 2027. Despite widespread January protests met with lethal force, leadership losses, proxy setbacks, and a collapsing rial, security forces showed minimal defections and maintained control. Recent US sanctions targeting financial lifelines, announced amid record currency lows and ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions, have intensified economic strain without triggering mass defections or coordinated opposition capable of toppling the system. Traders price in the regime's demonstrated resilience, institutional redundancies, and shift toward greater IRGC influence as barriers to near-term collapse, consistent with its track record of enduring comparable pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$25,242,706Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 US-Israel military campaign, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and rapid succession by his son Mojtaba, underpins the 92.5% implied probability against its fall before 2027. Despite widespread January protests met with lethal force, leadership losses, proxy setbacks, and a collapsing rial, security forces showed minimal defections and maintained control. Recent US sanctions targeting financial lifelines, announced amid record currency lows and ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions, have intensified economic strain without triggering mass defections or coordinated opposition capable of toppling the system. Traders price in the regime's demonstrated resilience, institutional redundancies, and shift toward greater IRGC influence as barriers to near-term collapse, consistent with its track record of enduring comparable pressures.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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