Ursula von der Leyen secured re-election by the European Parliament in July 2024 with 401 votes, securing a full mandate through the 2029 European elections that underpins the 95.3% trader consensus against her departure in 2026. She has continued directing Commission priorities on defense industrial capacity, EU-NATO coordination, and economic competitiveness into mid-2026, with parliamentary backing sufficient to defeat no-confidence motions and maintain member-state support despite occasional frictions. European Parliament dynamics have shown no coalition breakdowns or resignation signals capable of forcing an early exit. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outlook include a sudden health event, major political scandal eroding broad backing, or abrupt deterioration in parliamentary majorities before year-end.