AfD leads recent polls by double digits in Saxony-Anhalt (around 41 percent versus CDU at 23 percent) and holds a narrower edge in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while trailing in Berlin. These eastern-state dynamics, fueled by voter discontent with the federal government under Chancellor Merz, economic pressures, and immigration concerns, underpin trader expectations that the party will finish first in two of the three September contests. Smaller parties hovering near the 5 percent threshold could further boost AfD seat shares in the east. The market's 73.5 percent probability on exactly two outcomes reflects this geographic pattern and the firewall maintained by other parties against coalitions, which does not alter seat totals. Results from Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and the remaining votes later in the month will determine final positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено2 74%
1 15.3%
3 12.3%
0 <1%
$110,536 Обс.
$110,536 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0
<1%
1
15%
2
74%
3
12%
2 74%
1 15.3%
3 12.3%
0 <1%
$110,536 Обс.
$110,536 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$13,995 Обс.
<1%
1
$22,474 Обс.
15%
2
$46,787 Обс.
74%
3
$27,281 Обс.
12%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads recent polls by double digits in Saxony-Anhalt (around 41 percent versus CDU at 23 percent) and holds a narrower edge in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while trailing in Berlin. These eastern-state dynamics, fueled by voter discontent with the federal government under Chancellor Merz, economic pressures, and immigration concerns, underpin trader expectations that the party will finish first in two of the three September contests. Smaller parties hovering near the 5 percent threshold could further boost AfD seat shares in the east. The market's 73.5 percent probability on exactly two outcomes reflects this geographic pattern and the firewall maintained by other parties against coalitions, which does not alter seat totals. Results from Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and the remaining votes later in the month will determine final positioning.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Обсяг
$110,536Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads recent polls by double digits in Saxony-Anhalt (around 41 percent versus CDU at 23 percent) and holds a narrower edge in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while trailing in Berlin. These eastern-state dynamics, fueled by voter discontent with the federal government under Chancellor Merz, economic pressures, and immigration concerns, underpin trader expectations that the party will finish first in two of the three September contests. Smaller parties hovering near the 5 percent threshold could further boost AfD seat shares in the east. The market's 73.5 percent probability on exactly two outcomes reflects this geographic pattern and the firewall maintained by other parties against coalitions, which does not alter seat totals. Results from Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and the remaining votes later in the month will determine final positioning.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Обсяг
$110,536Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...AfD leads recent polls by double digits in Saxony-Anhalt (around 41 percent versus CDU at 23 percent) and holds a narrower edge in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while trailing in Berlin. These eastern-state dynamics, fueled by voter discontent with the federal government under Chancellor Merz, economic pressures, and immigration concerns, underpin trader expectations that the party will finish first in two of the three September contests. Smaller parties hovering near the 5 percent threshold could further boost AfD seat shares in the east. The market's 73.5 percent probability on exactly two outcomes reflects this geographic pattern and the firewall maintained by other parties against coalitions, which does not alter seat totals. Results from Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and the remaining votes later in the month will determine final positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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