Recent US-Iran developments, including the June 2026 ceasefire memorandum that explicitly commits Washington to respecting Iranian sovereignty and refraining from internal interference, have anchored trader expectations against formal recognition of Reza Pahlavi as leader. Public statements from the Trump administration, such as Vice President JD Vance's clarification that regime change or installing Pahlavi was never a goal, reinforced this stance after earlier conflicts and protests. Pahlavi's continued advocacy, including appearances at CPAC and other forums, has not shifted administration policy toward endorsement. With 96% implied probability on "No," the consensus reflects these verified diplomatic and rhetorical positions through mid-2026. Late-year escalations, sudden regime transition, or policy reversals remain conceivable but low-probability catalysts that could still alter the outcome before year-end.