**US President Donald Trump announced in July 2026 during a NATO summit in Ankara that the administration would lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defence Industries (SSB), imposed in December 2020 over Ankara’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 system.** He described the measures as outdated and signaled willingness to consider F-35 sales, citing improved bilateral ties. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed shared political will and ongoing technical steps, with the July statements creating the primary recent catalyst for market movement. Lifting requires a presidential waiver under Section 236 of CAATSA, triggering a 30- to 60-day congressional review period depending on timing. Separate statutory restrictions in the FY2020 NDAA bar F-35 transfers unless the administration certifies Turkey no longer possesses the S-400, a condition that remains unmet. Discussions around potential re-export of the systems (including to the UAE) have surfaced but faced reported setbacks. As of mid-September 2026, no waiver has been submitted and the designations remain in place, while unrelated US sanctions on Turkish entities tied to Iran underscore parallel pressure points. Traders weigh the July commitment against these procedural and legal hurdles, with any waiver filing or further diplomatic progress on the S-400 issue likely to influence near-term probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$48,662 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
October 31
31%
December 31
41%
$48,662 Обс.
October 31
$16,635 Обс.
31%
December 31
$17,567 Обс.
41%
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.**US President Donald Trump announced in July 2026 during a NATO summit in Ankara that the administration would lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defence Industries (SSB), imposed in December 2020 over Ankara’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 system.** He described the measures as outdated and signaled willingness to consider F-35 sales, citing improved bilateral ties. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed shared political will and ongoing technical steps, with the July statements creating the primary recent catalyst for market movement.
Lifting requires a presidential waiver under Section 236 of CAATSA, triggering a 30- to 60-day congressional review period depending on timing. Separate statutory restrictions in the FY2020 NDAA bar F-35 transfers unless the administration certifies Turkey no longer possesses the S-400, a condition that remains unmet. Discussions around potential re-export of the systems (including to the UAE) have surfaced but faced reported setbacks. As of mid-September 2026, no waiver has been submitted and the designations remain in place, while unrelated US sanctions on Turkish entities tied to Iran underscore parallel pressure points. Traders weigh the July commitment against these procedural and legal hurdles, with any waiver filing or further diplomatic progress on the S-400 issue likely to influence near-term probabilities.
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 11, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$48,662Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 11, 2026, 2:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.**US President Donald Trump announced in July 2026 during a NATO summit in Ankara that the administration would lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defence Industries (SSB), imposed in December 2020 over Ankara’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 system.** He described the measures as outdated and signaled willingness to consider F-35 sales, citing improved bilateral ties. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed shared political will and ongoing technical steps, with the July statements creating the primary recent catalyst for market movement.
Lifting requires a presidential waiver under Section 236 of CAATSA, triggering a 30- to 60-day congressional review period depending on timing. Separate statutory restrictions in the FY2020 NDAA bar F-35 transfers unless the administration certifies Turkey no longer possesses the S-400, a condition that remains unmet. Discussions around potential re-export of the systems (including to the UAE) have surfaced but faced reported setbacks. As of mid-September 2026, no waiver has been submitted and the designations remain in place, while unrelated US sanctions on Turkish entities tied to Iran underscore parallel pressure points. Traders weigh the July commitment against these procedural and legal hurdles, with any waiver filing or further diplomatic progress on the S-400 issue likely to influence near-term probabilities.
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Обсяг
$48,662Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 11, 2026, 2:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...**US President Donald Trump announced in July 2026 during a NATO summit in Ankara that the administration would lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defence Industries (SSB), imposed in December 2020 over Ankara’s acquisition of Russia’s S-400 system.** He described the measures as outdated and signaled willingness to consider F-35 sales, citing improved bilateral ties. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed shared political will and ongoing technical steps, with the July statements creating the primary recent catalyst for market movement. Lifting requires a presidential waiver under Section 236 of CAATSA, triggering a 30- to 60-day congressional review period depending on timing. Separate statutory restrictions in the FY2020 NDAA bar F-35 transfers unless the administration certifies Turkey no longer possesses the S-400, a condition that remains unmet. Discussions around potential re-export of the systems (including to the UAE) have surfaced but faced reported setbacks. As of mid-September 2026, no waiver has been submitted and the designations remain in place, while unrelated US sanctions on Turkish entities tied to Iran underscore parallel pressure points. Traders weigh the July commitment against these procedural and legal hurdles, with any waiver filing or further diplomatic progress on the S-400 issue likely to influence near-term probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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