**Sweden's parliamentary election on September 13 features a close contest between the centre-right Tidö bloc and centre-left opposition, with voter mobilization expected to support solid turnout.** Historical Riksdag participation has averaged 84.2% in 2022 and remained in the low-to-mid 80s percent range in prior cycles, reflecting consistent civic engagement in a proportional system without compulsory voting. Record advance voting—up roughly 40% from 2022 levels with nearly one million ballots cast early—points to strong participation driven by the tight race, security and immigration debates, and standard campaign dynamics. Trader consensus therefore clusters heavily on the 84-86% and 86-88% brackets, with lower probabilities assigned to sub-82% or 88%+ outcomes absent major disruptions. Structural factors such as high registration rates and established voting patterns reinforce the likelihood of turnout near recent benchmarks rather than sharp deviations.