**Widespread flash drought across the south-central United States has driven extensive areas of D4 exceptional drought, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability for 10 or more states.** Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 8, 2026, show rapid intensification from prolonged heat, low precipitation, and soil moisture deficits, particularly expanding D3-D4 coverage in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and adjacent states in the lower Midwest and Mississippi Valley. This aligns with National Drought Mitigation Center assessments of short-term agricultural and hydrological impacts under the five-category scale. The 1.5% national D4 area share and reports of 43+ states in D1+ drought provide historical precedent for multi-state exceptional conditions during late-summer flash events. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include substantial rainfall in the next monitoring period or revisions in subsequent USDM analyses that contract D4 boundaries below the 10-state threshold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?
10 or more states 99.5%
0 states <1%
1-2 states <1%
3-4 states <1%
$409 Обс.
$409 Обс.
Sep 10, 2026
0 states
<1%
1-2 states
<1%
3-4 states
<1%
5-6 states
<1%
7-9 states
<1%
10 or more states
100%
10 or more states 99.5%
0 states <1%
1-2 states <1%
3-4 states <1%
$409 Обс.
$409 Обс.
Sep 10, 2026
0 states
$91 Обс.
<1%
1-2 states
$80 Обс.
<1%
3-4 states
$58 Обс.
<1%
5-6 states
$58 Обс.
<1%
7-9 states
$58 Обс.
<1%
10 or more states
$63 Обс.
100%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Widespread flash drought across the south-central United States has driven extensive areas of D4 exceptional drought, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability for 10 or more states.** Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 8, 2026, show rapid intensification from prolonged heat, low precipitation, and soil moisture deficits, particularly expanding D3-D4 coverage in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and adjacent states in the lower Midwest and Mississippi Valley. This aligns with National Drought Mitigation Center assessments of short-term agricultural and hydrological impacts under the five-category scale. The 1.5% national D4 area share and reports of 43+ states in D1+ drought provide historical precedent for multi-state exceptional conditions during late-summer flash events. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include substantial rainfall in the next monitoring period or revisions in subsequent USDM analyses that contract D4 boundaries below the 10-state threshold.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Обсяг
$409Дата завершення
Sep 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Widespread flash drought across the south-central United States has driven extensive areas of D4 exceptional drought, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability for 10 or more states.** Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 8, 2026, show rapid intensification from prolonged heat, low precipitation, and soil moisture deficits, particularly expanding D3-D4 coverage in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and adjacent states in the lower Midwest and Mississippi Valley. This aligns with National Drought Mitigation Center assessments of short-term agricultural and hydrological impacts under the five-category scale. The 1.5% national D4 area share and reports of 43+ states in D1+ drought provide historical precedent for multi-state exceptional conditions during late-summer flash events. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include substantial rainfall in the next monitoring period or revisions in subsequent USDM analyses that contract D4 boundaries below the 10-state threshold.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Обсяг
$409Дата завершення
Sep 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Widespread flash drought across the south-central United States has driven extensive areas of D4 exceptional drought, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability for 10 or more states.** Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 8, 2026, show rapid intensification from prolonged heat, low precipitation, and soil moisture deficits, particularly expanding D3-D4 coverage in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and adjacent states in the lower Midwest and Mississippi Valley. This aligns with National Drought Mitigation Center assessments of short-term agricultural and hydrological impacts under the five-category scale. The 1.5% national D4 area share and reports of 43+ states in D1+ drought provide historical precedent for multi-state exceptional conditions during late-summer flash events. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include substantial rainfall in the next monitoring period or revisions in subsequent USDM analyses that contract D4 boundaries below the 10-state threshold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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