Current forecasts from MetService and international models point to a minimum temperature of 7–8°C in Wellington on September 21, driven by a shift from northerly to southerly winds behind a weakening front, combined with mostly clear overnight skies that promote radiational cooling under spring conditions. Recent observations show daily lows fluctuating between 6–9°C amid variable winds and light showers, consistent with September climatology where average minima hover near 7–8°C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 8°C and 7°C because model runs show limited scope for deeper cooling unless a stronger high-pressure ridge develops, while the chance of sub-6°C readings remains low absent unexpected clear, calm conditions. Updated guidance on wind strength and cloud cover over the next 48 hours will be the key variable influencing final resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Wellington on September 21?
7°C 40%
6°C 39%
8°C 35%
5°C 19%
3°C or below
2%
4°C
10%
5°C
19%
6°C
39%
7°C
40%
8°C
35%
9°C
10%
10°C
7%
11°C
5%
12°C
5%
13°C or higher
4%
7°C 40%
6°C 39%
8°C 35%
5°C 19%
3°C or below
2%
4°C
10%
5°C
19%
6°C
39%
7°C
40%
8°C
35%
9°C
10%
10°C
7%
11°C
5%
12°C
5%
13°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Джерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Джерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from MetService and international models point to a minimum temperature of 7–8°C in Wellington on September 21, driven by a shift from northerly to southerly winds behind a weakening front, combined with mostly clear overnight skies that promote radiational cooling under spring conditions. Recent observations show daily lows fluctuating between 6–9°C amid variable winds and light showers, consistent with September climatology where average minima hover near 7–8°C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 8°C and 7°C because model runs show limited scope for deeper cooling unless a stronger high-pressure ridge develops, while the chance of sub-6°C readings remains low absent unexpected clear, calm conditions. Updated guidance on wind strength and cloud cover over the next 48 hours will be the key variable influencing final resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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