**Current forecast models from sources like the ECMWF, GFS, and regional runs converge on an overnight minimum of 15–17°C in Warsaw for September 9, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values.** Mild southerly flow and initially clear skies allow moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 27–30°C, while a later northwest wind shift and increasing cloud cover limit further drops. Minor model differences in the timing of the wind change and low-level humidity explain the near-even probabilities for 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Historical early-September minima average near 10–12°C, but the current warmer pattern and lack of strong high pressure keep the distribution centered higher. Updated model runs and official observations through the evening will refine the exact threshold ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 9?
17°C 33%
16°C 32%
18°C 25%
15°C 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 9, 2026
11°C or below
8%
12°C
6%
13°C
9%
14°C
9%
15°C
29%
16°C
32%
17°C
33%
18°C
25%
19°C
10%
20°C
7%
21°C or higher
5%
17°C 33%
16°C 32%
18°C 25%
15°C 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 9, 2026
11°C or below
$75 Обс.
8%
12°C
$59 Обс.
6%
13°C
$31 Обс.
9%
14°C
$10 Обс.
9%
15°C
$48 Обс.
29%
16°C
$0 Обс.
32%
17°C
$0 Обс.
33%
18°C
$0 Обс.
25%
19°C
$20 Обс.
10%
20°C
$20 Обс.
7%
21°C or higher
$151 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from sources like the ECMWF, GFS, and regional runs converge on an overnight minimum of 15–17°C in Warsaw for September 9, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values.**
Mild southerly flow and initially clear skies allow moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 27–30°C, while a later northwest wind shift and increasing cloud cover limit further drops. Minor model differences in the timing of the wind change and low-level humidity explain the near-even probabilities for 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Historical early-September minima average near 10–12°C, but the current warmer pattern and lack of strong high pressure keep the distribution centered higher. Updated model runs and official observations through the evening will refine the exact threshold ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$412Дата завершення
Sep 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from sources like the ECMWF, GFS, and regional runs converge on an overnight minimum of 15–17°C in Warsaw for September 9, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values.**
Mild southerly flow and initially clear skies allow moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 27–30°C, while a later northwest wind shift and increasing cloud cover limit further drops. Minor model differences in the timing of the wind change and low-level humidity explain the near-even probabilities for 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Historical early-September minima average near 10–12°C, but the current warmer pattern and lack of strong high pressure keep the distribution centered higher. Updated model runs and official observations through the evening will refine the exact threshold ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$412Дата завершення
Sep 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast models from sources like the ECMWF, GFS, and regional runs converge on an overnight minimum of 15–17°C in Warsaw for September 9, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those values.** Mild southerly flow and initially clear skies allow moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 27–30°C, while a later northwest wind shift and increasing cloud cover limit further drops. Minor model differences in the timing of the wind change and low-level humidity explain the near-even probabilities for 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Historical early-September minima average near 10–12°C, but the current warmer pattern and lack of strong high pressure keep the distribution centered higher. Updated model runs and official observations through the evening will refine the exact threshold ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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