**Recent forecasts from Météo-France point to a cooldown in Île-de-France, with Paris expected to see morning lows near 15–17°C on August 6 followed by similar or slightly cooler overnight conditions into August 7 under clearing skies.** This has shifted trader focus toward the 11–13°C range, where the market now assigns roughly 87% combined implied probability. The primary scientific drivers are enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover and advection of cooler maritime air, which can drop surface temperatures 2–4°C below seasonal normals (typical August minima 14–16°C). Model consensus favors a minimum around 12°C as the most probable outcome, with 11°C remaining plausible if winds stay light and skies stay clear through dawn. Higher probabilities for 14°C+ outcomes have faded as the cooler spell materialized, while sub-10°C scenarios stay discounted given historical rarity in early August and the absence of stronger cold-air advection. Upcoming official updates from Météo-France and regional observations on the morning of August 7 will provide the final data for resolution, with any last-minute model shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind likely determining whether the low settles at 12°C or edges toward 11°C or 13°C.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Paris on August 7?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 7?
12°C 45%
13°C 20%
11°C 19%
15°C 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 7, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
4%
11°C
19%
12°C
45%
13°C
20%
14°C
10%
15°C
14%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C or higher
1%
12°C 45%
13°C 20%
11°C 19%
15°C 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 7, 2026
9°C or below
$244 Обс.
1%
10°C
$163 Обс.
4%
11°C
$189 Обс.
19%
12°C
$443 Обс.
45%
13°C
$290 Обс.
20%
14°C
$107 Обс.
10%
15°C
$770 Обс.
14%
16°C
$1,354 Обс.
1%
17°C
$1,141 Обс.
1%
18°C
$1,205 Обс.
1%
19°C or higher
$1,088 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from Météo-France point to a cooldown in Île-de-France, with Paris expected to see morning lows near 15–17°C on August 6 followed by similar or slightly cooler overnight conditions into August 7 under clearing skies.** This has shifted trader focus toward the 11–13°C range, where the market now assigns roughly 87% combined implied probability.
The primary scientific drivers are enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover and advection of cooler maritime air, which can drop surface temperatures 2–4°C below seasonal normals (typical August minima 14–16°C). Model consensus favors a minimum around 12°C as the most probable outcome, with 11°C remaining plausible if winds stay light and skies stay clear through dawn. Higher probabilities for 14°C+ outcomes have faded as the cooler spell materialized, while sub-10°C scenarios stay discounted given historical rarity in early August and the absence of stronger cold-air advection.
Upcoming official updates from Météo-France and regional observations on the morning of August 7 will provide the final data for resolution, with any last-minute model shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind likely determining whether the low settles at 12°C or edges toward 11°C or 13°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$6,995Дата завершення
Aug 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from Météo-France point to a cooldown in Île-de-France, with Paris expected to see morning lows near 15–17°C on August 6 followed by similar or slightly cooler overnight conditions into August 7 under clearing skies.** This has shifted trader focus toward the 11–13°C range, where the market now assigns roughly 87% combined implied probability.
The primary scientific drivers are enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover and advection of cooler maritime air, which can drop surface temperatures 2–4°C below seasonal normals (typical August minima 14–16°C). Model consensus favors a minimum around 12°C as the most probable outcome, with 11°C remaining plausible if winds stay light and skies stay clear through dawn. Higher probabilities for 14°C+ outcomes have faded as the cooler spell materialized, while sub-10°C scenarios stay discounted given historical rarity in early August and the absence of stronger cold-air advection.
Upcoming official updates from Météo-France and regional observations on the morning of August 7 will provide the final data for resolution, with any last-minute model shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind likely determining whether the low settles at 12°C or edges toward 11°C or 13°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6,995Дата завершення
Aug 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from Météo-France point to a cooldown in Île-de-France, with Paris expected to see morning lows near 15–17°C on August 6 followed by similar or slightly cooler overnight conditions into August 7 under clearing skies.** This has shifted trader focus toward the 11–13°C range, where the market now assigns roughly 87% combined implied probability. The primary scientific drivers are enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover and advection of cooler maritime air, which can drop surface temperatures 2–4°C below seasonal normals (typical August minima 14–16°C). Model consensus favors a minimum around 12°C as the most probable outcome, with 11°C remaining plausible if winds stay light and skies stay clear through dawn. Higher probabilities for 14°C+ outcomes have faded as the cooler spell materialized, while sub-10°C scenarios stay discounted given historical rarity in early August and the absence of stronger cold-air advection. Upcoming official updates from Météo-France and regional observations on the morning of August 7 will provide the final data for resolution, with any last-minute model shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind likely determining whether the low settles at 12°C or edges toward 11°C or 13°C.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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