**Current short-range forecast models, including GFS data, point to clear skies and high pressure over Madrid through September 21, favoring radiative cooling overnight but with minimum temperatures likely in the 15–18°C range rather than extremes.** This positioning stems from the ongoing warm September anomaly (monthly mean running ~+3°C above the 21.2°C normal), light winds, and low humidity that limit both strong cooling and retained daytime heat. The near-even market split between ≤14°C and ≥24°C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty at this lead time: small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or model bias could push the daily minimum across resolution thresholds, while historical September 21 lows average 14.6°C with a wide observed range. Upcoming model runs and AEMET guidance will clarify whether the current consensus holds or diverges.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
14°C or below 100%
15°C 39%
16°C 19%
17°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 21, 2026
14°C or below
100%
15°C
39%
16°C
19%
17°C
11%
18°C
7%
19°C
4%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
4%
24°C or higher
4%
14°C or below 100%
15°C 39%
16°C 19%
17°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 21, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Обс.
100%
15°C
$0 Обс.
39%
16°C
$0 Обс.
19%
17°C
$0 Обс.
11%
18°C
$0 Обс.
7%
19°C
$0 Обс.
4%
20°C
$0 Обс.
4%
21°C
$0 Обс.
4%
22°C
$0 Обс.
4%
23°C
$0 Обс.
4%
24°C or higher
$0 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecast models, including GFS data, point to clear skies and high pressure over Madrid through September 21, favoring radiative cooling overnight but with minimum temperatures likely in the 15–18°C range rather than extremes.**
This positioning stems from the ongoing warm September anomaly (monthly mean running ~+3°C above the 21.2°C normal), light winds, and low humidity that limit both strong cooling and retained daytime heat. The near-even market split between ≤14°C and ≥24°C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty at this lead time: small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or model bias could push the daily minimum across resolution thresholds, while historical September 21 lows average 14.6°C with a wide observed range. Upcoming model runs and AEMET guidance will clarify whether the current consensus holds or diverges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecast models, including GFS data, point to clear skies and high pressure over Madrid through September 21, favoring radiative cooling overnight but with minimum temperatures likely in the 15–18°C range rather than extremes.**
This positioning stems from the ongoing warm September anomaly (monthly mean running ~+3°C above the 21.2°C normal), light winds, and low humidity that limit both strong cooling and retained daytime heat. The near-even market split between ≤14°C and ≥24°C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty at this lead time: small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or model bias could push the daily minimum across resolution thresholds, while historical September 21 lows average 14.6°C with a wide observed range. Upcoming model runs and AEMET guidance will clarify whether the current consensus holds or diverges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Current short-range forecast models, including GFS data, point to clear skies and high pressure over Madrid through September 21, favoring radiative cooling overnight but with minimum temperatures likely in the 15–18°C range rather than extremes.** This positioning stems from the ongoing warm September anomaly (monthly mean running ~+3°C above the 21.2°C normal), light winds, and low humidity that limit both strong cooling and retained daytime heat. The near-even market split between ≤14°C and ≥24°C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty at this lead time: small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or model bias could push the daily minimum across resolution thresholds, while historical September 21 lows average 14.6°C with a wide observed range. Upcoming model runs and AEMET guidance will clarify whether the current consensus holds or diverges.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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