**The 76.5% market-implied probability on “No” for Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau getting engaged by the end of 2026 reflects the couple’s relatively short relationship timeline and current focus on stabilization rather than immediate milestones.** Perry and Trudeau first sparked dating rumors in July 2025 after a Montreal outing, went Instagram official by late 2025, and made their red-carpet debut at the June 2026 Tribeca Festival premiere of her *Lifetimes Tour* concert film, where she publicly called him the “love of my life.” Summer 2026 coverage showed continued public affection, including PDA-filled beach days in Saint-Tropez in July and August, with insiders describing them as “very smitten” and co-parenting across blended families while touring and traveling. Recent reporting emphasizes their desire to “lay down roots” and re-stabilize after a whirlwind first year, rather than accelerating toward engagement. With only about four months remaining until year-end and no verified hints of a proposal, traders view an engagement as unlikely in this compressed window, consistent with typical celebrity relationship pacing and the absence of precursor signals.