Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites inoperable and much of the roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile buried or inaccessible under rubble. The most recent IAEA verification report, circulated in early September 2026, confirms Tehran’s continued refusal of inspector access to bombed locations, preventing confirmation of any enrichment resumption or material movement. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks under a June 2026 memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo and eventual IAEA-supervised downblending, reinforcing trader consensus against a test before 2027. A shift could occur if stalled diplomacy prompts Iran to pursue covert reconstitution of centrifuges or weaponization pathways using unverified highly enriched uranium.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% шанс
$251,689 Обс.
$251,689 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
5% шанс
$251,689 Обс.
$251,689 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites inoperable and much of the roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile buried or inaccessible under rubble. The most recent IAEA verification report, circulated in early September 2026, confirms Tehran’s continued refusal of inspector access to bombed locations, preventing confirmation of any enrichment resumption or material movement. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks under a June 2026 memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo and eventual IAEA-supervised downblending, reinforcing trader consensus against a test before 2027. A shift could occur if stalled diplomacy prompts Iran to pursue covert reconstitution of centrifuges or weaponization pathways using unverified highly enriched uranium.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$251,689Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites inoperable and much of the roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile buried or inaccessible under rubble. The most recent IAEA verification report, circulated in early September 2026, confirms Tehran’s continued refusal of inspector access to bombed locations, preventing confirmation of any enrichment resumption or material movement. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks under a June 2026 memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo and eventual IAEA-supervised downblending, reinforcing trader consensus against a test before 2027. A shift could occur if stalled diplomacy prompts Iran to pursue covert reconstitution of centrifuges or weaponization pathways using unverified highly enriched uranium.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$251,689Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites inoperable and much of the roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile buried or inaccessible under rubble. The most recent IAEA verification report, circulated in early September 2026, confirms Tehran’s continued refusal of inspector access to bombed locations, preventing confirmation of any enrichment resumption or material movement. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks under a June 2026 memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo and eventual IAEA-supervised downblending, reinforcing trader consensus against a test before 2027. A shift could occur if stalled diplomacy prompts Iran to pursue covert reconstitution of centrifuges or weaponization pathways using unverified highly enriched uranium.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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