Iran’s longstanding position that uranium enrichment on its territory is a non-negotiable sovereign right for civilian purposes continues to anchor trader expectations against any agreement to end the activity by December 31. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks through 2025–2026, including the June Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical sessions in Switzerland, produced limited progress on inspectors’ return and sanctions relief while leaving enrichment levels and facilities as core unresolved issues. U.S. proposals for zero domestic enrichment or relocation to a regional consortium have met Iranian objections, and post-2025 strikes on sites such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan have not altered Tehran’s red lines. With negotiations still addressing verification, stockpile management, and ballistic-missile constraints, the compressed timeline to year-end makes a binding commitment to terminate enrichment improbable under current diplomatic conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено11% шанс
$1,632,340 Обс.
$1,632,340 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
11% шанс
$1,632,340 Обс.
$1,632,340 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s longstanding position that uranium enrichment on its territory is a non-negotiable sovereign right for civilian purposes continues to anchor trader expectations against any agreement to end the activity by December 31. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks through 2025–2026, including the June Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical sessions in Switzerland, produced limited progress on inspectors’ return and sanctions relief while leaving enrichment levels and facilities as core unresolved issues. U.S. proposals for zero domestic enrichment or relocation to a regional consortium have met Iranian objections, and post-2025 strikes on sites such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan have not altered Tehran’s red lines. With negotiations still addressing verification, stockpile management, and ballistic-missile constraints, the compressed timeline to year-end makes a binding commitment to terminate enrichment improbable under current diplomatic conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,632,340Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s longstanding position that uranium enrichment on its territory is a non-negotiable sovereign right for civilian purposes continues to anchor trader expectations against any agreement to end the activity by December 31. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks through 2025–2026, including the June Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical sessions in Switzerland, produced limited progress on inspectors’ return and sanctions relief while leaving enrichment levels and facilities as core unresolved issues. U.S. proposals for zero domestic enrichment or relocation to a regional consortium have met Iranian objections, and post-2025 strikes on sites such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan have not altered Tehran’s red lines. With negotiations still addressing verification, stockpile management, and ballistic-missile constraints, the compressed timeline to year-end makes a binding commitment to terminate enrichment improbable under current diplomatic conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,632,340Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s longstanding position that uranium enrichment on its territory is a non-negotiable sovereign right for civilian purposes continues to anchor trader expectations against any agreement to end the activity by December 31. Indirect U.S.-Iran talks through 2025–2026, including the June Islamabad Memorandum and subsequent technical sessions in Switzerland, produced limited progress on inspectors’ return and sanctions relief while leaving enrichment levels and facilities as core unresolved issues. U.S. proposals for zero domestic enrichment or relocation to a regional consortium have met Iranian objections, and post-2025 strikes on sites such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan have not altered Tehran’s red lines. With negotiations still addressing verification, stockpile management, and ballistic-missile constraints, the compressed timeline to year-end makes a binding commitment to terminate enrichment improbable under current diplomatic conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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