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icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

Моджтаба Хаменеї 82.3%

Немає Глави держави 4.4%

Реза Пехлеві 3.2%

Аліреза Арафі 1.7%

Polymarket

$38,822,202 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї 82.3%

Немає Глави держави 4.4%

Реза Пехлеві 3.2%

Аліреза Арафі 1.7%

Polymarket

$38,822,202 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї

$6,153,910 Обс.

82%

Немає Глави держави

$1,151,070 Обс.

4%

Реза Пехлеві

$675,483 Обс.

3%

Аліреза Арафі

$2,313,677 Обс.

2%

Махмуд Ахмадінеджад

$1,124,955 Обс.

1%

Хасан Рухані

$944,950 Обс.

1%

Ахмад Вахіді

$778,173 Обс.

1%

Хасан Хомейні

$1,432,610 Обс.

1%

Масуд Пезешкіан

$1,020,448 Обс.

1%

Мохаммад-Багер Калібаф

$919,323 Обс.

1%

Аббас Арагчі

$833,743 Обс.

<1%

Мухаммад Мірбакірі

$438,358 Обс.

<1%

Садег Ларіджані

$541,190 Обс.

<1%

Хасан Шаріатмадинарі

$3,148,205 Обс.

<1%

Марʼям Раджаві

$807,276 Обс.

<1%

Массуд Раджаві

$399,822 Обс.

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавіан

$3,694,879 Обс.

<1%

Реза Пірзаде

$147,449 Обс.

<1%

Навід Шомалі

$215,035 Обс.

<1%

Мустафа Хіджрі

$201,356 Обс.

<1%

Алі Мотахарі

$837,355 Обс.

<1%

Голам-Алі Хаддад-Адел

$436,805 Обс.

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммаді

$3,351,552 Обс.

<1%

Садеґ Махсулі

$241,120 Обс.

<1%

Саїд Джалілі

$389,903 Обс.

<1%

Мохаммад Хатамі

$5,193,812 Обс.

<1%

Мохсен Аракі

$286,913 Обс.

<1%

Насір Хоссейні

$254,952 Обс.

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейні Хорасані

$306,911 Обс.

<1%

Алі Асґар Хеджазі

$344,166 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the U.S.-Israeli strike that killed his father Ali Khamenei, underpins his dominant market position through regime emphasis on continuity and IRGC support during active conflict. Recent August 2026 appointments of hardline commanders to top security and military roles, alongside official statements confirming meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian, reinforce his authority despite prolonged public absence tied to reported injuries. Speculation over his health persists but has not shifted the Assembly’s selection or institutional backing, leaving alternatives like Alireza Arafi or others with limited traction amid wartime consolidation priorities. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors favoring retention through late 2026, though health developments or internal power shifts could still alter outcomes.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$38,822,202
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the U.S.-Israeli strike that killed his father Ali Khamenei, underpins his dominant market position through regime emphasis on continuity and IRGC support during active conflict. Recent August 2026 appointments of hardline commanders to top security and military roles, alongside official statements confirming meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian, reinforce his authority despite prolonged public absence tied to reported injuries. Speculation over his health persists but has not shifted the Assembly’s selection or institutional backing, leaving alternatives like Alireza Arafi or others with limited traction amid wartime consolidation priorities. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors favoring retention through late 2026, though health developments or internal power shifts could still alter outcomes.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$38,822,202
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 32 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 82%, далі «Немає Глави держави» з 4%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» згенерував $38.8 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Feb 28, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?», перегляньте 32 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 82%. Наступний — «Немає Глави держави» з 4%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.