Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's 78% consensus on that exact total. Trackers such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report eleven Senate departures overall—seven Republicans and four Democrats—as of mid-August 2026. Key announcements span 2025 into early 2026, including those by Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), with additional exits locking in the count. Traders view further changes as improbable without late primary challenges, unexpected candidacies for other offices, or reversals by sitting members. This retirement level exceeds recent cycles and stems from standard factors including age, term limits considerations, and conference dynamics, leaving adjacent outcomes like nine or five with single-digit probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено7 78%
11 11.3%
9 5.0%
5 3.0%
$101,131 Обс.
$101,131 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
78%
8
1%
9
5%
10
1%
11
8%
12+
<1%
7 78%
11 11.3%
9 5.0%
5 3.0%
$101,131 Обс.
$101,131 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$22,734 Обс.
1%
5
$17,511 Обс.
3%
6
$27,247 Обс.
1%
7
$16,977 Обс.
78%
8
$4,623 Обс.
1%
9
$2,208 Обс.
5%
10
$1,873 Обс.
1%
11
$2,845 Обс.
8%
12+
$5,112 Обс.
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's 78% consensus on that exact total. Trackers such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report eleven Senate departures overall—seven Republicans and four Democrats—as of mid-August 2026. Key announcements span 2025 into early 2026, including those by Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), with additional exits locking in the count. Traders view further changes as improbable without late primary challenges, unexpected candidacies for other offices, or reversals by sitting members. This retirement level exceeds recent cycles and stems from standard factors including age, term limits considerations, and conference dynamics, leaving adjacent outcomes like nine or five with single-digit probabilities.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$101,131Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's 78% consensus on that exact total. Trackers such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report eleven Senate departures overall—seven Republicans and four Democrats—as of mid-August 2026. Key announcements span 2025 into early 2026, including those by Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), with additional exits locking in the count. Traders view further changes as improbable without late primary challenges, unexpected candidacies for other offices, or reversals by sitting members. This retirement level exceeds recent cycles and stems from standard factors including age, term limits considerations, and conference dynamics, leaving adjacent outcomes like nine or five with single-digit probabilities.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$101,131Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have confirmed they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's 78% consensus on that exact total. Trackers such as Ballotpedia and Wikipedia report eleven Senate departures overall—seven Republicans and four Democrats—as of mid-August 2026. Key announcements span 2025 into early 2026, including those by Sens. Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma), with additional exits locking in the count. Traders view further changes as improbable without late primary challenges, unexpected candidacies for other offices, or reversals by sitting members. This retirement level exceeds recent cycles and stems from standard factors including age, term limits considerations, and conference dynamics, leaving adjacent outcomes like nine or five with single-digit probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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