Global background rates from USGS data show roughly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake per week worldwide on average, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter relation, producing the market's near-even split between zero and one event. The recent deep M6.6 intraslab quake off Java on September 11-12 falls outside the September 14-20 window and does not elevate aftershock risk. Traders appear to weigh normal week-to-week Poisson variability against the absence of active aftershock sequences, swarm activity, or anomalous strain signals along major subduction zones. Fresh USGS and EMSC catalogs through mid-September confirm steady rates without clustering that would favor two or more events.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
0 47%
1 37%
2 16%
3 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 21, 2026
0
47%
1
37%
2
16%
3
8%
4
5%
5
2%
more than 5
1%
0 47%
1 37%
2 16%
3 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 21, 2026
0
$339 Обс.
47%
1
$72 Обс.
37%
2
$31 Обс.
16%
3
$31 Обс.
8%
4
$33 Обс.
5%
5
$37 Обс.
2%
more than 5
$37 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Global background rates from USGS data show roughly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake per week worldwide on average, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter relation, producing the market's near-even split between zero and one event. The recent deep M6.6 intraslab quake off Java on September 11-12 falls outside the September 14-20 window and does not elevate aftershock risk. Traders appear to weigh normal week-to-week Poisson variability against the absence of active aftershock sequences, swarm activity, or anomalous strain signals along major subduction zones. Fresh USGS and EMSC catalogs through mid-September confirm steady rates without clustering that would favor two or more events.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Обсяг
$581Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Global background rates from USGS data show roughly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake per week worldwide on average, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter relation, producing the market's near-even split between zero and one event. The recent deep M6.6 intraslab quake off Java on September 11-12 falls outside the September 14-20 window and does not elevate aftershock risk. Traders appear to weigh normal week-to-week Poisson variability against the absence of active aftershock sequences, swarm activity, or anomalous strain signals along major subduction zones. Fresh USGS and EMSC catalogs through mid-September confirm steady rates without clustering that would favor two or more events.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Обсяг
$581Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Global background rates from USGS data show roughly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake per week worldwide on average, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter relation, producing the market's near-even split between zero and one event. The recent deep M6.6 intraslab quake off Java on September 11-12 falls outside the September 14-20 window and does not elevate aftershock risk. Traders appear to weigh normal week-to-week Poisson variability against the absence of active aftershock sequences, swarm activity, or anomalous strain signals along major subduction zones. Fresh USGS and EMSC catalogs through mid-September confirm steady rates without clustering that would favor two or more events.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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