Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–2 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS records showing roughly 120–150 M6.0–6.9 earthquakes annually. Trader consensus favoring zero (46.5%) or one (34.0%) event reflects the current quiet period, with no M6+ quakes recorded since a 6.1 near the Kermadec Islands on August 5 and overall low global energy release in early August 2026. No active aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or model indications of elevated risk exist for the August 10–16 window. New USGS or EMSC catalog updates over the coming days will provide the primary data shifts capable of moving implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
0 44%
1 35%
2 14%
3 3.6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 10, 2026
0
44%
1
35%
2
14%
3
4%
4
2%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 44%
1 35%
2 14%
3 3.6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 10, 2026
0
$560 Обс.
44%
1
$373 Обс.
35%
2
$293 Обс.
14%
3
$358 Обс.
4%
4
$270 Обс.
2%
5
$250 Обс.
<1%
>5
$350 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–2 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS records showing roughly 120–150 M6.0–6.9 earthquakes annually. Trader consensus favoring zero (46.5%) or one (34.0%) event reflects the current quiet period, with no M6+ quakes recorded since a 6.1 near the Kermadec Islands on August 5 and overall low global energy release in early August 2026. No active aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or model indications of elevated risk exist for the August 10–16 window. New USGS or EMSC catalog updates over the coming days will provide the primary data shifts capable of moving implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,454Дата завершення
Aug 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–2 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS records showing roughly 120–150 M6.0–6.9 earthquakes annually. Trader consensus favoring zero (46.5%) or one (34.0%) event reflects the current quiet period, with no M6+ quakes recorded since a 6.1 near the Kermadec Islands on August 5 and overall low global energy release in early August 2026. No active aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or model indications of elevated risk exist for the August 10–16 window. New USGS or EMSC catalog updates over the coming days will provide the primary data shifts capable of moving implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$2,454Дата завершення
Aug 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–2 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS records showing roughly 120–150 M6.0–6.9 earthquakes annually. Trader consensus favoring zero (46.5%) or one (34.0%) event reflects the current quiet period, with no M6+ quakes recorded since a 6.1 near the Kermadec Islands on August 5 and overall low global energy release in early August 2026. No active aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or model indications of elevated risk exist for the August 10–16 window. New USGS or EMSC catalog updates over the coming days will provide the primary data shifts capable of moving implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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