**Official forecasts from MetService and NIWA for August 7, 2026, in Wellington show a daytime maximum of 13°C under a transition to northerly winds, with a fine morning followed by occasional afternoon rain.** This aligns closely with the market-implied odds, where 13°C leads at 56.5% followed by 12°C at 24.5%. August climatology places typical highs near 12°C, with sea surface temperatures around 12°C providing a moderating influence in this coastal, windy location. Recent days featured cooler southerly flows with showers and possible hill snow, but the shift to northerlies is expected to support the modest warming. Model consensus remains tight around the 12–13°C range, with limited scope for outliers given the seasonal context and lack of strong high-pressure blocking or extreme advection. Upcoming MetService updates and any revised model runs overnight will be the key near-term drivers for these probabilities.