**Elevated inflation readings and resilient labor market data have positioned "Other" as the leading outcome at 61.5% for the July–October 2026 FOMC sequence, while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 36%.** The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% in July despite three dissents favoring a hike, with the effective rate near 3.63%. Persistent price pressures—PCE inflation reaching 4.1% year-over-year through May before moderating—combined with August nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 have kept market-implied odds of a September 16 hike near 59%. Traders view the hawkish June dot plot (median 3.8% end-2026) and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability as supporting at least one 25-basis-point increase across the September or October meetings. Recent cooling in July CPI to 3.4% year-over-year introduces some uncertainty, but strong job gains and above-target inflation continue to favor mixed or tightening paths over three consecutive holds. The next key catalysts are the September FOMC decision with updated projections and October labor and inflation releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOther 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,042 Обс.
$748,042 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
62%
Other 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,042 Обс.
$748,042 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$250,736 Обс.
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,624 Обс.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,317 Обс.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 Обс.
<1%
Other
$319,574 Обс.
62%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation readings and resilient labor market data have positioned "Other" as the leading outcome at 61.5% for the July–October 2026 FOMC sequence, while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 36%.** The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% in July despite three dissents favoring a hike, with the effective rate near 3.63%. Persistent price pressures—PCE inflation reaching 4.1% year-over-year through May before moderating—combined with August nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 have kept market-implied odds of a September 16 hike near 59%.
Traders view the hawkish June dot plot (median 3.8% end-2026) and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability as supporting at least one 25-basis-point increase across the September or October meetings. Recent cooling in July CPI to 3.4% year-over-year introduces some uncertainty, but strong job gains and above-target inflation continue to favor mixed or tightening paths over three consecutive holds. The next key catalysts are the September FOMC decision with updated projections and October labor and inflation releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$748,042Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation readings and resilient labor market data have positioned "Other" as the leading outcome at 61.5% for the July–October 2026 FOMC sequence, while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 36%.** The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% in July despite three dissents favoring a hike, with the effective rate near 3.63%. Persistent price pressures—PCE inflation reaching 4.1% year-over-year through May before moderating—combined with August nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 have kept market-implied odds of a September 16 hike near 59%.
Traders view the hawkish June dot plot (median 3.8% end-2026) and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability as supporting at least one 25-basis-point increase across the September or October meetings. Recent cooling in July CPI to 3.4% year-over-year introduces some uncertainty, but strong job gains and above-target inflation continue to favor mixed or tightening paths over three consecutive holds. The next key catalysts are the September FOMC decision with updated projections and October labor and inflation releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$748,042Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation readings and resilient labor market data have positioned "Other" as the leading outcome at 61.5% for the July–October 2026 FOMC sequence, while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 36%.** The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% in July despite three dissents favoring a hike, with the effective rate near 3.63%. Persistent price pressures—PCE inflation reaching 4.1% year-over-year through May before moderating—combined with August nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 have kept market-implied odds of a September 16 hike near 59%. Traders view the hawkish June dot plot (median 3.8% end-2026) and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability as supporting at least one 25-basis-point increase across the September or October meetings. Recent cooling in July CPI to 3.4% year-over-year introduces some uncertainty, but strong job gains and above-target inflation continue to favor mixed or tightening paths over three consecutive holds. The next key catalysts are the September FOMC decision with updated projections and October labor and inflation releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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