Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with geopolitical energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict and solid economic growth, has anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range since January. The July 29 FOMC meeting delivered the first of the three decisions in this market with a 9–3 hold, featuring three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. This outcome, alongside resilient labor market data and incoming CPI prints, has shifted trader consensus toward “Other” sequences at 62% implied probability, ahead of Pause–Pause–Pause at 36%. Markets now focus on the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, where fresh employment and inflation releases will clarify whether the restrictive stance persists or shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOther 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,036 Обс.
$748,036 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
62%
Other 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,036 Обс.
$748,036 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$250,736 Обс.
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,624 Обс.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,317 Обс.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 Обс.
<1%
Other
$319,568 Обс.
62%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with geopolitical energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict and solid economic growth, has anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range since January. The July 29 FOMC meeting delivered the first of the three decisions in this market with a 9–3 hold, featuring three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. This outcome, alongside resilient labor market data and incoming CPI prints, has shifted trader consensus toward “Other” sequences at 62% implied probability, ahead of Pause–Pause–Pause at 36%. Markets now focus on the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, where fresh employment and inflation releases will clarify whether the restrictive stance persists or shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$748,036Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with geopolitical energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict and solid economic growth, has anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range since January. The July 29 FOMC meeting delivered the first of the three decisions in this market with a 9–3 hold, featuring three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. This outcome, alongside resilient labor market data and incoming CPI prints, has shifted trader consensus toward “Other” sequences at 62% implied probability, ahead of Pause–Pause–Pause at 36%. Markets now focus on the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, where fresh employment and inflation releases will clarify whether the restrictive stance persists or shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$748,036Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with geopolitical energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict and solid economic growth, has anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% range since January. The July 29 FOMC meeting delivered the first of the three decisions in this market with a 9–3 hold, featuring three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. This outcome, alongside resilient labor market data and incoming CPI prints, has shifted trader consensus toward “Other” sequences at 62% implied probability, ahead of Pause–Pause–Pause at 36%. Markets now focus on the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, where fresh employment and inflation releases will clarify whether the restrictive stance persists or shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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