California's 14th congressional district, covering parts of the East Bay including Alameda County communities, has long leaned strongly Democratic in both presidential and congressional voting. The August 18, 2026 special general election follows a June primary in which the top two finishers—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—were both Democrats, creating a same-party matchup that locks in the outcome for the Democratic nominee under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty, consistent with the district's partisan lean and historical results. Limited upside for Republicans stems from their candidate finishing third in the primary. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a successful legal challenge altering the ballot before voting concludes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-14 House Election Winner
CA-14 House Election Winner
$35,737 Обс.
$35,737 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
2%
$35,737 Обс.
$35,737 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,981 Обс.
96%
Republican Party
$21,756 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district, covering parts of the East Bay including Alameda County communities, has long leaned strongly Democratic in both presidential and congressional voting. The August 18, 2026 special general election follows a June primary in which the top two finishers—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—were both Democrats, creating a same-party matchup that locks in the outcome for the Democratic nominee under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty, consistent with the district's partisan lean and historical results. Limited upside for Republicans stems from their candidate finishing third in the primary. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a successful legal challenge altering the ballot before voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$35,737Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district, covering parts of the East Bay including Alameda County communities, has long leaned strongly Democratic in both presidential and congressional voting. The August 18, 2026 special general election follows a June primary in which the top two finishers—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—were both Democrats, creating a same-party matchup that locks in the outcome for the Democratic nominee under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty, consistent with the district's partisan lean and historical results. Limited upside for Republicans stems from their candidate finishing third in the primary. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a successful legal challenge altering the ballot before voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$35,737Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th congressional district, covering parts of the East Bay including Alameda County communities, has long leaned strongly Democratic in both presidential and congressional voting. The August 18, 2026 special general election follows a June primary in which the top two finishers—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—were both Democrats, creating a same-party matchup that locks in the outcome for the Democratic nominee under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty, consistent with the district's partisan lean and historical results. Limited upside for Republicans stems from their candidate finishing third in the primary. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a successful legal challenge altering the ballot before voting concludes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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