California's 3rd congressional district has shifted into solidly Democratic territory following redistricting, with recent presidential results showing a double-digit margin favoring the party. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera, first elected in 2012, advanced from the June 2026 primary and faces Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. The district's voter registration patterns and historical performance in federal races reinforce this positioning, producing trader consensus reflected in the heavy favorite status for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking development such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though the underlying partisan composition limits realistic paths to a Republican victory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-03 House Election Winner
CA-03 House Election Winner
$34,203 Обс.
$34,203 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
3%
$34,203 Обс.
$34,203 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$19,591 Обс.
94%
Republican Party
$14,612 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 3rd congressional district has shifted into solidly Democratic territory following redistricting, with recent presidential results showing a double-digit margin favoring the party. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera, first elected in 2012, advanced from the June 2026 primary and faces Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. The district's voter registration patterns and historical performance in federal races reinforce this positioning, producing trader consensus reflected in the heavy favorite status for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking development such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though the underlying partisan composition limits realistic paths to a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$34,203Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 3rd congressional district has shifted into solidly Democratic territory following redistricting, with recent presidential results showing a double-digit margin favoring the party. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera, first elected in 2012, advanced from the June 2026 primary and faces Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. The district's voter registration patterns and historical performance in federal races reinforce this positioning, producing trader consensus reflected in the heavy favorite status for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking development such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though the underlying partisan composition limits realistic paths to a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$34,203Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 3rd congressional district has shifted into solidly Democratic territory following redistricting, with recent presidential results showing a double-digit margin favoring the party. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera, first elected in 2012, advanced from the June 2026 primary and faces Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. The district's voter registration patterns and historical performance in federal races reinforce this positioning, producing trader consensus reflected in the heavy favorite status for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking development such as a significant scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though the underlying partisan composition limits realistic paths to a Republican victory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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