**Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a 2025 special election by roughly 39 points, faces Republican Daniel Butierez Sr. in Arizona’s 7th District on November 3.** The solidly Democratic, majority-Latino district stretching along the Mexico border carries a D+10 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles. With both candidates running unopposed in their July 2026 primaries and limited Republican fundraising, trader attention centers on the precise margin rather than the winner. Current pricing reflects uncertainty over turnout among working-class and Latino voters, national midterm headwinds, and any late shifts on border security or economic messaging. Developments that could widen or narrow the spread include stronger-than-expected Democratic mobilization, Republican gains in suburban Maricopa County precincts, or broader national political currents affecting down-ballot performance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAZ-07 House Election Margin of Victory
AZ-07 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 35-40% 22%
Democrat 45-50% 21%
Democrat 25-30% 20%
Democrat 30-35% 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 50%+
12%
Democrat 45-50%
21%
Democrat 40-45%
13%
Democrat 35-40%
22%
Democrat 30-35%
16%
Democrat 25-30%
20%
Democrat 20-25%
11%
Democrat 10-20%
10%
Democrat 0-10%
4%
Republican Wins
4%
Democrat 35-40% 22%
Democrat 45-50% 21%
Democrat 25-30% 20%
Democrat 30-35% 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 50%+
$75 Обс.
12%
Democrat 45-50%
$52 Обс.
21%
Democrat 40-45%
$106 Обс.
13%
Democrat 35-40%
$129 Обс.
22%
Democrat 30-35%
$112 Обс.
16%
Democrat 25-30%
$459 Обс.
20%
Democrat 20-25%
$244 Обс.
11%
Democrat 10-20%
$75 Обс.
10%
Democrat 0-10%
$75 Обс.
4%
Republican Wins
$65 Обс.
4%
The 2026 AZ-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a 2025 special election by roughly 39 points, faces Republican Daniel Butierez Sr. in Arizona’s 7th District on November 3.** The solidly Democratic, majority-Latino district stretching along the Mexico border carries a D+10 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles. With both candidates running unopposed in their July 2026 primaries and limited Republican fundraising, trader attention centers on the precise margin rather than the winner. Current pricing reflects uncertainty over turnout among working-class and Latino voters, national midterm headwinds, and any late shifts on border security or economic messaging. Developments that could widen or narrow the spread include stronger-than-expected Democratic mobilization, Republican gains in suburban Maricopa County precincts, or broader national political currents affecting down-ballot performance.
The 2026 AZ-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 7, 2026, 10:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,391Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 10:04 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 AZ-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a 2025 special election by roughly 39 points, faces Republican Daniel Butierez Sr. in Arizona’s 7th District on November 3.** The solidly Democratic, majority-Latino district stretching along the Mexico border carries a D+10 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles. With both candidates running unopposed in their July 2026 primaries and limited Republican fundraising, trader attention centers on the precise margin rather than the winner. Current pricing reflects uncertainty over turnout among working-class and Latino voters, national midterm headwinds, and any late shifts on border security or economic messaging. Developments that could widen or narrow the spread include stronger-than-expected Democratic mobilization, Republican gains in suburban Maricopa County precincts, or broader national political currents affecting down-ballot performance.
The 2026 AZ-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$1,391Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 10:04 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a 2025 special election by roughly 39 points, faces Republican Daniel Butierez Sr. in Arizona’s 7th District on November 3.** The solidly Democratic, majority-Latino district stretching along the Mexico border carries a D+10 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles. With both candidates running unopposed in their July 2026 primaries and limited Republican fundraising, trader attention centers on the precise margin rather than the winner. Current pricing reflects uncertainty over turnout among working-class and Latino voters, national midterm headwinds, and any late shifts on border security or economic messaging. Developments that could widen or narrow the spread include stronger-than-expected Democratic mobilization, Republican gains in suburban Maricopa County precincts, or broader national political currents affecting down-ballot performance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання