Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the Amzan, combined with elevated war-risk premiums and a declared blockade, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits volatile and well below pre-2024 norms despite modest Suez recovery. AIS-visible weekly volumes have stabilized near 223–269 vessels amid mixed container and tanker flows, with carriers like Maersk and MSC conditionally routing more services through the strait while treating returns as reversible. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched 25–29 and 30–34 buckets captures uncertainty over whether security conditions improve or deteriorate by late September, with dark transits, sanctioned traffic, and freight-rate sensitivity as key swing factors.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
30-34 26.6%
25-29 26%
<25 19.4%
35-39 18%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
<25
19%
25-29
26%
30-34
27%
35-39
18%
40+
9%
30-34 26.6%
25-29 26%
<25 19.4%
35-39 18%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
<25
$338 Обс.
19%
25-29
$1,081 Обс.
26%
30-34
$461 Обс.
27%
35-39
$324 Обс.
18%
40+
$164 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the Amzan, combined with elevated war-risk premiums and a declared blockade, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits volatile and well below pre-2024 norms despite modest Suez recovery. AIS-visible weekly volumes have stabilized near 223–269 vessels amid mixed container and tanker flows, with carriers like Maersk and MSC conditionally routing more services through the strait while treating returns as reversible. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched 25–29 and 30–34 buckets captures uncertainty over whether security conditions improve or deteriorate by late September, with dark transits, sanctioned traffic, and freight-rate sensitivity as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,368Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETДжерело вирішення
IMF PortWatchВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the Amzan, combined with elevated war-risk premiums and a declared blockade, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits volatile and well below pre-2024 norms despite modest Suez recovery. AIS-visible weekly volumes have stabilized near 223–269 vessels amid mixed container and tanker flows, with carriers like Maersk and MSC conditionally routing more services through the strait while treating returns as reversible. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched 25–29 and 30–34 buckets captures uncertainty over whether security conditions improve or deteriorate by late September, with dark transits, sanctioned traffic, and freight-rate sensitivity as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Обсяг
$2,368Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETДжерело вирішення
IMF PortWatchВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the Amzan, combined with elevated war-risk premiums and a declared blockade, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits volatile and well below pre-2024 norms despite modest Suez recovery. AIS-visible weekly volumes have stabilized near 223–269 vessels amid mixed container and tanker flows, with carriers like Maersk and MSC conditionally routing more services through the strait while treating returns as reversible. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched 25–29 and 30–34 buckets captures uncertainty over whether security conditions improve or deteriorate by late September, with dark transits, sanctioned traffic, and freight-rate sensitivity as key swing factors.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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