The Parti Québécois holds a consistent polling lead near 29 percent in recent surveys, buoyed by strong francophone support and gains through recent by-elections, positioning it as the frontrunner to secure a plurality of seats in the October 5 vote under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system. The Coalition Avenir Québec has narrowed the gap to around 24 percent under new leader Christine Fréchette, drawing support from voters concerned about economic pressures and U.S. tariffs while contesting key ridings directly with the PQ. The Quebec Liberal Party has slipped to roughly 22 percent amid leadership transition effects, with smaller parties such as the Conservatives and Québec solidaire remaining below 16 percent and unlikely to challenge for the most seats. Seat projections reflect a likely PQ minority outcome given regional vote patterns and a split federalist vote.