The Parti Québécois holds a clear lead in the Quebec general election scheduled for October 5, 2026, with recent polling averages placing it at 28–30% support, well ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec at 23–27%, the Parti Libéral du Québec at 20–22%, and smaller parties below 16%. This positioning stems from sustained PQ strength among francophone voters, geographic concentration that favors seat totals under first-past-the-post, and gains from the CAQ’s long-term decline since 2022. The new CAQ leader Christine Fréchette has narrowed the gap somewhat in early campaign polls released in late August, primarily by drawing support from Liberal voters, while high numbers of undecided voters (around 40–50%) leave room for movement. Seat projections from multiple models give the PQ an 85%+ probability of securing the most seats, often in minority form, consistent with trader consensus on the outcome. Key campaign issues include economic pressures from U.S. tariffs, health system reforms, and immigration levels.