**A persistent high-pressure ridge and intense heatwave have kept overnight lows elevated across Paris ahead of August 14, producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21–23 °C.** Météo-France and European models show clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime heating persisting into Friday, with daytime maxima near 37–38 °C. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, especially in the urban heat-island environment where concrete and reduced sky-view factor typically add 1–2 °C to minimum temperatures relative to rural surroundings. Recent guidance indicates the overnight low on the 14th will likely settle between roughly 20–24 °C, with 21–23 °C representing the narrow band of consensus across successive model runs. Small differences in boundary-layer moisture, exact wind direction, or timing of any weak perturbation can shift the recorded minimum by 1 °C, explaining why these three outcomes trade within a few percentage points of each other. A modest cooldown is signaled only after the weekend, so little change in the probability distribution is expected before resolution.