**Current official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) point to overnight lows of 27–29°C on August 12 under typical subtropical summer conditions with partly cloudy skies and a chance of showers.** This narrow band explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–29°C, with traders assigning the highest probability to 29°C as recent model guidance and climatological trends favor slightly warmer nights. August minima in Hong Kong normally average near 26–27°C, but the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures, combined with persistent high humidity and cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling, supports the upward bias in current projections. Showers can further moderate temperature drops by enhancing downward longwave radiation, while light winds reduce mixing with cooler air aloft. Minor forecast revisions from updated numerical weather prediction runs or changes in convective activity over the next 48 hours remain the main variables that could shift the exact minimum within this 2–3°C window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?
29°C 37%
28°C 28%
27°C 26%
30°C 15%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 12, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
14%
27°C
26%
28°C
28%
29°C
37%
30°C
15%
31°C
12%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 37%
28°C 28%
27°C 26%
30°C 15%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 12, 2026
24°C or below
$22 Vol.
1%
25°C
$23 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
14%
27°C
$37 Vol.
26%
28°C
$0 Vol.
28%
29°C
$128 Vol.
37%
30°C
$0 Vol.
15%
31°C
$0 Vol.
12%
32°C
$26 Vol.
1%
33°C
$22 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$22 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Current official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) point to overnight lows of 27–29°C on August 12 under typical subtropical summer conditions with partly cloudy skies and a chance of showers.**
This narrow band explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–29°C, with traders assigning the highest probability to 29°C as recent model guidance and climatological trends favor slightly warmer nights. August minima in Hong Kong normally average near 26–27°C, but the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures, combined with persistent high humidity and cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling, supports the upward bias in current projections.
Showers can further moderate temperature drops by enhancing downward longwave radiation, while light winds reduce mixing with cooler air aloft. Minor forecast revisions from updated numerical weather prediction runs or changes in convective activity over the next 48 hours remain the main variables that could shift the exact minimum within this 2–3°C window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$279Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 12, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Current official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) point to overnight lows of 27–29°C on August 12 under typical subtropical summer conditions with partly cloudy skies and a chance of showers.**
This narrow band explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–29°C, with traders assigning the highest probability to 29°C as recent model guidance and climatological trends favor slightly warmer nights. August minima in Hong Kong normally average near 26–27°C, but the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures, combined with persistent high humidity and cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling, supports the upward bias in current projections.
Showers can further moderate temperature drops by enhancing downward longwave radiation, while light winds reduce mixing with cooler air aloft. Minor forecast revisions from updated numerical weather prediction runs or changes in convective activity over the next 48 hours remain the main variables that could shift the exact minimum within this 2–3°C window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$279Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 12, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) point to overnight lows of 27–29°C on August 12 under typical subtropical summer conditions with partly cloudy skies and a chance of showers.** This narrow band explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 27–29°C, with traders assigning the highest probability to 29°C as recent model guidance and climatological trends favor slightly warmer nights. August minima in Hong Kong normally average near 26–27°C, but the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures, combined with persistent high humidity and cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling, supports the upward bias in current projections. Showers can further moderate temperature drops by enhancing downward longwave radiation, while light winds reduce mixing with cooler air aloft. Minor forecast revisions from updated numerical weather prediction runs or changes in convective activity over the next 48 hours remain the main variables that could shift the exact minimum within this 2–3°C window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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