Trader sentiment for Milan's August 24 overnight minimum clusters tightly around 15–19 °C because official model guidance and recent observations point to modest radiational cooling under building high pressure and light easterly flow across the Po Valley. Partly cloudy skies limit surface heat loss while boundary-layer moisture and weak mixing keep the low from dropping sharply, consistent with climatological August minima near 18 °C. Clearer intervals overnight could allow temperatures to reach 16–17 °C, whereas increased low-level humidity or sustained wind would hold readings closer to 19–20 °C. The narrow spread in market-implied probabilities captures genuine uncertainty in exact cloud timing and local mixing that numerical weather prediction runs continue to resolve differently ahead of the 24-hour forecast window.