Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau’s relationship, which began in mid-2025 following her split from Orlando Bloom and his divorce, has strengthened through consistent public milestones without crossing into engagement territory. By summer 2026 the pair marked their one-year anniversary with PDA-filled vacations in Saint-Tropez, a red-carpet debut at the Tribeca Film Festival where Perry called Trudeau the “love of her life,” and Instagram-official posts showing them blending family time with high-profile appearances. These developments have solidified trader consensus that the couple is in a committed honeymoon phase, yet no verified reports indicate marriage discussions or an imminent proposal. With only four-plus months left in 2026 and both parties navigating post-divorce realities—Perry’s history of lengthy engagements and Trudeau’s shift from political office—the market-implied 76.5% probability on “No” reflects the view that any engagement would require accelerated momentum unlikely to materialize before year-end.