**With Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claiming the year’s largest domestic opening at $360 million, the market for the second-biggest 2026 debut remains tightly contested among a broad field of tentpoles.** Multiple titles sit near 50% implied probability, reflecting trader uncertainty over which upcoming or recent release will post the next-highest three-day gross. Avengers: Doomsday (47.5%) and Spider-Man: Brand New Day (45.5%) trade close behind, while earlier 2026 performers such as Toy Story 5 (~$160 million) and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (~$132 million) provide historical benchmarks. Key swing factors include December tracking for Avengers: Doomsday, holiday-season competition, and any late shifts in presales or critical buzz that could elevate or diminish a single film’s ceiling. The wide spread underscores how quickly new data on major releases can reorder the leaderboard before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 48%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 46%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$107,634 Vol.
$107,634 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
48%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
46%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 48%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 46%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$107,634 Vol.
$107,634 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
$43,529 Vol.
48%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$53,772 Vol.
46%
Dune: Messiah
$5,892 Vol.
<1%
Toy Story 5
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$482 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**With Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claiming the year’s largest domestic opening at $360 million, the market for the second-biggest 2026 debut remains tightly contested among a broad field of tentpoles.** Multiple titles sit near 50% implied probability, reflecting trader uncertainty over which upcoming or recent release will post the next-highest three-day gross. Avengers: Doomsday (47.5%) and Spider-Man: Brand New Day (45.5%) trade close behind, while earlier 2026 performers such as Toy Story 5 (~$160 million) and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (~$132 million) provide historical benchmarks. Key swing factors include December tracking for Avengers: Doomsday, holiday-season competition, and any late shifts in presales or critical buzz that could elevate or diminish a single film’s ceiling. The wide spread underscores how quickly new data on major releases can reorder the leaderboard before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
Volume
$107,634Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**With Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claiming the year’s largest domestic opening at $360 million, the market for the second-biggest 2026 debut remains tightly contested among a broad field of tentpoles.** Multiple titles sit near 50% implied probability, reflecting trader uncertainty over which upcoming or recent release will post the next-highest three-day gross. Avengers: Doomsday (47.5%) and Spider-Man: Brand New Day (45.5%) trade close behind, while earlier 2026 performers such as Toy Story 5 (~$160 million) and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (~$132 million) provide historical benchmarks. Key swing factors include December tracking for Avengers: Doomsday, holiday-season competition, and any late shifts in presales or critical buzz that could elevate or diminish a single film’s ceiling. The wide spread underscores how quickly new data on major releases can reorder the leaderboard before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$107,634Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**With Spider-Man: Brand New Day already claiming the year’s largest domestic opening at $360 million, the market for the second-biggest 2026 debut remains tightly contested among a broad field of tentpoles.** Multiple titles sit near 50% implied probability, reflecting trader uncertainty over which upcoming or recent release will post the next-highest three-day gross. Avengers: Doomsday (47.5%) and Spider-Man: Brand New Day (45.5%) trade close behind, while earlier 2026 performers such as Toy Story 5 (~$160 million) and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (~$132 million) provide historical benchmarks. Key swing factors include December tracking for Avengers: Doomsday, holiday-season competition, and any late shifts in presales or critical buzz that could elevate or diminish a single film’s ceiling. The wide spread underscores how quickly new data on major releases can reorder the leaderboard before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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