Republican House primary losses have reached three confirmed cases by mid-August 2026—Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th, Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd after redistricting, and Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th—placing the cycle on pace for a modestly elevated total. Intraparty challenges fueled by presidential endorsements, alignment disputes, and occasional redistricting effects have produced these outcomes without triggering a broad wave. With most primaries completed and remaining contests concentrated in safer districts, trader consensus centers on 4-6 total defeats as the most probable range. Additional losses would require several late upsets against well-funded incumbents; fewer would demand an unusually quiet finish to the season. This positioning aligns with historical patterns outside major redistricting years while reflecting the current cycle’s higher baseline of turnover.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
4-6 92.8%
7-9 6.1%
10-12 3.1%
13-15 2.9%
$76,080 Vol.
$76,080 Vol.
≤3
<1%
4-6
93%
7-9
6%
10-12
3%
13-15
3%
>15
2%
4-6 92.8%
7-9 6.1%
10-12 3.1%
13-15 2.9%
$76,080 Vol.
$76,080 Vol.
≤3
$38,821 Vol.
<1%
4-6
$19,264 Vol.
93%
7-9
$6,315 Vol.
6%
10-12
$5,051 Vol.
3%
13-15
$3,933 Vol.
3%
>15
$2,696 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Republican House primary losses have reached three confirmed cases by mid-August 2026—Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th, Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd after redistricting, and Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th—placing the cycle on pace for a modestly elevated total. Intraparty challenges fueled by presidential endorsements, alignment disputes, and occasional redistricting effects have produced these outcomes without triggering a broad wave. With most primaries completed and remaining contests concentrated in safer districts, trader consensus centers on 4-6 total defeats as the most probable range. Additional losses would require several late upsets against well-funded incumbents; fewer would demand an unusually quiet finish to the season. This positioning aligns with historical patterns outside major redistricting years while reflecting the current cycle’s higher baseline of turnover.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$76,080Binuksan ang Market
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Republican House primary losses have reached three confirmed cases by mid-August 2026—Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th, Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd after redistricting, and Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th—placing the cycle on pace for a modestly elevated total. Intraparty challenges fueled by presidential endorsements, alignment disputes, and occasional redistricting effects have produced these outcomes without triggering a broad wave. With most primaries completed and remaining contests concentrated in safer districts, trader consensus centers on 4-6 total defeats as the most probable range. Additional losses would require several late upsets against well-funded incumbents; fewer would demand an unusually quiet finish to the season. This positioning aligns with historical patterns outside major redistricting years while reflecting the current cycle’s higher baseline of turnover.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$76,080Binuksan ang Market
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
Republican House primary losses have reached three confirmed cases by mid-August 2026—Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th, Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd after redistricting, and Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th—placing the cycle on pace for a modestly elevated total. Intraparty challenges fueled by presidential endorsements, alignment disputes, and occasional redistricting effects have produced these outcomes without triggering a broad wave. With most primaries completed and remaining contests concentrated in safer districts, trader consensus centers on 4-6 total defeats as the most probable range. Additional losses would require several late upsets against well-funded incumbents; fewer would demand an unusually quiet finish to the season. This positioning aligns with historical patterns outside major redistricting years while reflecting the current cycle’s higher baseline of turnover.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateKaugnay
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
68%
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
79%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
96%
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