Several Democratic House incumbents have already lost primaries in 2026 amid progressive challenges and redistricting-driven matchups, with seven confirmed defeats including Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and two Texas cases involving Al Green and Julie Johnson. These results reflect left-flank opposition, generational turnover pressures, and district map changes that forced some sitting members into contested races. With the primary calendar still open in additional states, traders assign the highest probability to a final total of 10-12 losses, viewing the current pace as elevated relative to historical averages yet unlikely to reach the highest brackets without further upsets.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update10-12 43.0%
7-9 25.6%
13-15 5.8%
>15 3.1%
$24,597 Vol.
$24,597 Vol.
<3
<1%
4-6
<1%
7-9
26%
10-12
43%
13-15
6%
>15
3%
10-12 43.0%
7-9 25.6%
13-15 5.8%
>15 3.1%
$24,597 Vol.
$24,597 Vol.
<3
$1,106 Vol.
<1%
4-6
$1,872 Vol.
<1%
7-9
$11,704 Vol.
26%
10-12
$5,223 Vol.
43%
13-15
$2,210 Vol.
6%
>15
$2,481 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Several Democratic House incumbents have already lost primaries in 2026 amid progressive challenges and redistricting-driven matchups, with seven confirmed defeats including Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and two Texas cases involving Al Green and Julie Johnson. These results reflect left-flank opposition, generational turnover pressures, and district map changes that forced some sitting members into contested races. With the primary calendar still open in additional states, traders assign the highest probability to a final total of 10-12 losses, viewing the current pace as elevated relative to historical averages yet unlikely to reach the highest brackets without further upsets.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$24,597Binuksan ang Market
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Several Democratic House incumbents have already lost primaries in 2026 amid progressive challenges and redistricting-driven matchups, with seven confirmed defeats including Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and two Texas cases involving Al Green and Julie Johnson. These results reflect left-flank opposition, generational turnover pressures, and district map changes that forced some sitting members into contested races. With the primary calendar still open in additional states, traders assign the highest probability to a final total of 10-12 losses, viewing the current pace as elevated relative to historical averages yet unlikely to reach the highest brackets without further upsets.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$24,597Binuksan ang Market
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
Several Democratic House incumbents have already lost primaries in 2026 amid progressive challenges and redistricting-driven matchups, with seven confirmed defeats including Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and two Texas cases involving Al Green and Julie Johnson. These results reflect left-flank opposition, generational turnover pressures, and district map changes that forced some sitting members into contested races. With the primary calendar still open in additional states, traders assign the highest probability to a final total of 10-12 losses, viewing the current pace as elevated relative to historical averages yet unlikely to reach the highest brackets without further upsets.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateKaugnay
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
93%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
96%
Magkakaroon ba ng mas kaunting 22 na posisyon ng gobernador ang Republican Party pagkatapos ng midterm elections ng 2026?
31%
Oo
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