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icon for Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory?
Politika·Margin

Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory?

icon for Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory?
Politika·Margin

Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory?

Peltola 3–6% 31%

Peltola 6–9% 16%

Sullivan <3% 13%

Peltola <3% 13%

Polymarket
BAGO

Peltola 3–6% 31%

Peltola 6–9% 16%

Sullivan <3% 13%

Peltola <3% 13%

Polymarket
BAGO
icon for Peltola 15%+

Peltola 15%+

$195 Vol.

8%

icon for Peltola 12–15%

Peltola 12–15%

$159 Vol.

10%

icon for Peltola 9–12%

Peltola 9–12%

$159 Vol.

10%

icon for Peltola 6–9%

Peltola 6–9%

$385 Vol.

16%

icon for Peltola 3–6%

Peltola 3–6%

$951 Vol.

31%

icon for Peltola <3%

Peltola <3%

$199 Vol.

13%

icon for Sullivan <3%

Sullivan <3%

$159 Vol.

13%

icon for Sullivan 3–6%

Sullivan 3–6%

$343 Vol.

4%

icon for Sullivan 6–9%

Sullivan 6–9%

$299 Vol.

7%

icon for Sullivan 9–12%

Sullivan 9–12%

$327 Vol.

7%

icon for Sullivan 12%+

Sullivan 12%+

$332 Vol.

6%

The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The closely contested August 18 top-four primary between incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan seeking a third term and Democratic challenger former Rep. Mary Peltola drives the current market positioning. Peltola’s substantial fundraising edge, reported at roughly $6.9 million since April compared with Sullivan’s $2 million, along with her grassroots and labor support, has kept the race tight according to recent surveys. A same-name Republican primary opponent cleared by the Alaska Supreme Court adds ballot confusion that could fragment Republican votes and compress victory margins. Alaska’s open primary system and upcoming ranked-choice general election further heighten uncertainty over exact spreads, with trader consensus reflecting these dynamics in the leading outcomes for modest Peltola advantages or other results.

The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$3,505
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The closely contested August 18 top-four primary between incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan seeking a third term and Democratic challenger former Rep. Mary Peltola drives the current market positioning. Peltola’s substantial fundraising edge, reported at roughly $6.9 million since April compared with Sullivan’s $2 million, along with her grassroots and labor support, has kept the race tight according to recent surveys. A same-name Republican primary opponent cleared by the Alaska Supreme Court adds ballot confusion that could fragment Republican votes and compress victory margins. Alaska’s open primary system and upcoming ranked-choice general election further heighten uncertainty over exact spreads, with trader consensus reflecting these dynamics in the leading outcomes for modest Peltola advantages or other results.

The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$3,505
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 11 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Peltola 3–6%" sa 31%, sinusundan ng "Peltola 6–9%" sa 16%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 31¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 31% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Aug 13, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory?," i-browse ang 11 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory?" ay "Peltola 3–6%" sa 31%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 31% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Peltola 6–9%" sa 16%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Alaska Senate Primary Election: Margin of Victory?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.