Recent strong August nonfarm payrolls data, showing 162,000 jobs added versus expectations of around 53,000, has driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.78–4.80% as of September 4, 2026, reflecting a resilient labor market and persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target. Elevated oil prices amid geopolitical tensions and heavy Treasury supply have widened term premiums, supporting higher yields despite some dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Market-implied odds of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting have risen, while upcoming CPI and PPI releases could shift expectations and test whether yields can move lower later in the month.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
Below 4.76%
61%
Below 4.73%
61%
Below 4.70%
50%
Below 4.67%
49%
Below 4.64%
49%
Below 4.61%
50%
Below 4.56%
48%
Below 4.51%
38%
Below 4.45%
36%
$0.00 Vol.
Below 4.76%
61%
Below 4.73%
61%
Below 4.70%
50%
Below 4.67%
49%
Below 4.64%
49%
Below 4.61%
50%
Below 4.56%
48%
Below 4.51%
38%
Below 4.45%
36%
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent strong August nonfarm payrolls data, showing 162,000 jobs added versus expectations of around 53,000, has driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.78–4.80% as of September 4, 2026, reflecting a resilient labor market and persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target. Elevated oil prices amid geopolitical tensions and heavy Treasury supply have widened term premiums, supporting higher yields despite some dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Market-implied odds of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting have risen, while upcoming CPI and PPI releases could shift expectations and test whether yields can move lower later in the month.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update

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